Israel and the WBGS – Next Steps

October 9, 2023

The first step and priority of any nation being attacked (e.g., Ukraine by Russian or Israel by Hamas) is to defend itself as best it can. The next step, how ever,  can easily succumb to the urge to seek revenge, as called for by Netanyahu, who is “ implementing a ‘full siege’ of the densely populated Gaza Strip — ‘no electricity, no food, no fuel,’ said Defense Minister Yoav Gallant — as part of a campaign that is aimed at destroying Hamas’s military capabilities” Wash Post “Israel-Gaza war Hamas” But such retaliation would be another escalation up the ladder toward total destruction—or, if you prefer, deeper into the hole.

“Even a decisive Israeli military victory is unlikely to end the country’s increasingly perilous security challenges. It’s not even clear what “winning” means…. “If the war stopped today, or even after Gaza looks like another war zone, Hamas has effectively won,” said Dan Kurtzer, a former U.S. Ambassador to Israel. “New Yorker: Israel may decimate Hamas, but can it win this war”

The more emotionally and politically difficult second step would aim to lower hostilities in the more distant future. It would seek to understand and deal with the issues that led to Hama’s brutal attack. “Wash Post: The Israeli-Hamas war has two paths forward”

“Palestinian demands are both clear and precise: Freeing all prisoners; respecting the sanctity of Palestinian holy sites in Jerusalem, ending the siege on Gaza and more.” “The Gaza war is lost, but will Netanyahu concede?” Should Israel negotiate these demands or retaliate?

The goals of the Oslo Accord that I worked hard to help implement –the two state solution—have not been realized. Both Israel and the Palestine Authority created according to the Oslo Accord have failed to measure up to their required roles and the U.S. has failed to hold each to account.

To quote from my blog on Oct 7 “Hamas’s objectives in the operation are no secret: First, retaliate and punish Israel for its occupation, oppression, illegal settlement, and desecration of Palestinian religious symbols, especially Al-Aqsa Mosque in Jerusalem; second, take aim at Arab normalisation with Israel that embraces its apartheid regime in the region; and lastly, secure another prisoner exchange in order to get as many Palestinian political prisoners released from Israeli jails as possible.”  https://wcoats.blog/2023/10/07/palestine-israel-and-wbgs/

In 2006, when Hamas won the most seats in the new Palestinian legislature “then Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice mused, ‘Certainly, I’ve asked why nobody saw it coming, and I hope that we will take a hard look, because it does say something about perhaps not having had a good enough pulse on the Palestinian population.’ The words are haunting, once again, today.” “New Yorker: Israel may decimate Hamas, but can it win this war”

The U.S. winked when the election losing Fatah, headed by Mahmoud Abbas, ignored the election results and took over the Palestinian Authority. The U.S. closed its eyes all together when Israelis murdered Palestinian men, women and children and bulldozed their homes to make way for more Israeli settlements. What were we expecting?

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Author: Warren Coats

I specialize in advising central banks on monetary policy and the development of the capacity to formulate and implement monetary policy.  I joined the International Monetary Fund in 1975 from which I retired in 2003 as Assistant Director of the Monetary and Financial Systems Department. While at the IMF I led or participated in missions to the central banks of over twenty countries (including Afghanistan, Bosnia, Croatia, Egypt, Iraq, Israel, Kazakhstan, Kenya, Kosovo, Kyrgystan, Moldova, Serbia, Turkey, West Bank and Gaza Strip, and Zimbabwe) and was seconded as a visiting economist to the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (1979-80), and to the World Bank's World Development Report team in 1989.  After retirement from the IMF I was a member of the Board of the Cayman Islands Monetary Authority from 2003-10 and of the editorial board of the Cayman Financial Review from 2010-2017.  Prior to joining the IMF I was Assistant Prof of Economics at UVa from 1970-75.  I am currently a fellow of Johns Hopkins Krieger School of Arts and Sciences, Institute for Applied Economics, Global Health, and the Study of Business Enterprise.  In March 2019 Central Banking Journal awarded me for my “Outstanding Contribution for Capacity Building.”  My recent books are One Currency for Bosnia: Creating the Central Bank of Bosnia and Herzegovina; My Travels in the Former Soviet Union; My Travels to Afghanistan; My Travels to Jerusalem; and My Travels to Baghdad. I have a BA in Economics from the UC Berkeley and a PhD in Economics from the University of Chicago. My dissertation committee was chaired by Milton Friedman and included Robert J. Gordon. I live in National Landing Va 22202

4 thoughts on “Israel and the WBGS – Next Steps”

    1. Thanks Richard. Your summary of the region’s history is very helpful, though I think that the Oslo Accords had more promise than you suggest. See my book on my travels to Jerusalem (Palestine: The Oslo Accords before and after). The overriding challenge is the desire (demand) to have a religious state, whether Jewish or Muslim. America’s founding fathers had the wisdom to separate church and state.

      1. Yes, the religious element on both sides makes it that much more difficult. This shows part of the problem when both sides insist that “God is on our side.”

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