Immigration and smuggling

America has a labor shortage. We need to widen the door to legal immigration and patrol our borders against illegal immigration and drug smuggling more effectively. The Biden administration has requested several billion dollars for that purpose and Congress should approve it. But how should it be paid for. “Congress funding of border control”

Every person and every country’s resources are limited. Their use for one thing means that they are not available to be used for something else. Budgets reflect our choices—our priorities. Increasing our border security would save tens of thousands of lives a year from reduced drug smuggling alone.

I suggest that we close our military bases in Europe and apply the money saved to increased border security and deficit reduction (sadly it would not be enough to reduce our debt only the deficit –i.e., the annual increase in debt). Our European bases cost $24.4 billion in 2018 (the latest figure I could find and with our support for the war in Ukraine it could only have increased). Our EU basses save no lives and add nothing to our security. They largely reduce the incentive for EU countries to provide for their own defense. But our immigration policy and border controls are a mess and should be improved.

Defending Palestine

“Thousands of protesters forced the closure of Grand Central station in New York on Friday night in a large sit-in against Israel’s bombardment of Gaza. The demonstration, [where] made up mostly of Jewish New Yorkers,” “Protest-New York Grand Central-Israel Gaza Palestine”   Bless them.

Palestinians killed by the Israeli military passed 8,000 on Oct 29. Over half were women and children. Hamas’s vicious attack on Israel Oct 7 killed 1,400 Israelis. All of those deaths should be condemned. When President Biden questioned the accuracy of the Gaza Health Ministry’s tally, many Muslims and Arab Americans were shocked and angered having previously been shocked at Biden’s blank check to Netanyahu to do whatever it takes to wipe out Hamas. “Biden Israel Palestine Muslim Americans war”   

“The United States vetoed a draft resolution at the UN Security Council which called for a humanitarian pause in besieged Gaza. The draft resolution, proposed by Brazil, condemned the October 7 terror attacks in Israel by Palestinian militant group Hamas, which killed over 1,400 people, and urged the release of hostages taken. It also called on all parties to comply with international law and protect civilian lives in Hamas-controlled Gaza amid a ferocious retaliation by Israeli warplanes. The international community should engineer “humanitarian pauses” in the fighting to allow for aid delivery, it said. Twelve of the council’s 15 members approved the draft on Wednesday, with the UK and Russia abstaining, and a US veto.” US vetoes Security Council call for ‘humanitarian pause’ in Israel-Hamas war | CNN

More recently the Biden White House has held meetings with its Muslim and Arab staff as well as Arab community leaders to gain a better understanding of the issues from their perspective. Biden now calls for a humanitarian pause and has cautioned Israel to minimize civilian casualties. “Biden Israel Palestine Muslim Americans’ war”

The claims of some that most Palestinians in Gaza support Hamas are simply false “What Palestinians really think about Hamas”  

The viciousness of the attacks by Hamas and Israel has sadly aroused some to challenge America’s cherished free speech tradition with the all too typical cry of antisemitism against those defending Palestinian rights. ”An Israeli American professor at Columbia University’s business school slammed his employer in a fiery speech on campus Wednesday night — ripping the university for apparently not publicly denouncing pro-Palestinian student organizations that he claimed are ‘pro-terror.’”  “Columbia professor rips university’s president over Israel Hamas war response”

But our freedom to speak is too important to our free society to be easily snuff out. Dozens of Columbia University and Bernard College faculty issued an open letter defending not only the right of its students to defend Palestinians but the substance of their letter as well.

The letter stated in part that “In our view, the student statement aims to recontextualize the events of October 7, 2023, pointing out that military operations and state violence did not begin that day, but rather it represented a military response by a people who had endured crushing and unrelenting state violence from an occupying power over many years…. It is worth noting that not all of us agree with every one of the claims made in the students’ statement, but we do agree that making such claims cannot and should not be considered anti-Semitic….

“We ask Columbia University’s leadership, our faculty colleagues, Columbia alumni, potential employers of Columbia students, and all who share a commitment to the notion of a just society to join us in condemning, in the strongest of terms, the vicious targeting of our students with doxing, public shaming, surveillance by members of our community, including other students, and reprisals from employers.” “Open letter from Columbia and Barnard faculties” Amen

We all need this discussion in order to hear and understand everyone’s point of view. Peace will not come to Israel and to the West Bank and Gaza Strip until the Jews and Palestinians living there reconcile their grievance’s and adhere to just treatment of all.

Defending Israel

“’Hamas is ISIS,’ declared Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu…. ‘Just as the forces of civilization united to defeat ISIS, the forces of civilization must support Israel in defeating Hamas,’ Netanyahu said…. Hamas, which Israeli Foreign Minister Eli Cohen said on Tuesday ‘must be erased off the face of the planet.’… Israeli officials have vowed a merciless campaign of retribution against ‘human animals.’” “Washington Post: Hamas ISIS Islamic State Israel terrorism analogy”

That requires some unpacking. For starters: “ISIS literally views Hamas as apostates” Washington Post. But more importantly, even if Israel wanted to treat Hamas like it would treat ISIS, it would not be legally or morally justified in what it is now doing to Gaza and its largely Palestinian residents. Israel is starving and bombing them to death (no food, water, power) and as of noon Oct 25 4,385 have been killed by Israeli bombs, 62% of which are women and children and probably none are Hamas officials.

Efforts to defeat ISIS around the world were focused on the members of ISIS and not the people of the country they were operating in.  “Israel-Hamas-war-Gaza-Palestine-ground invasion strategy”  “UN chief Antonio Guterres on Tuesday asserted that no party to an armed conflict is above international humanitarian law as he expressed deep alarm over the “relentless bombardment” of the Hamas-ruled Gaza Strip by Israeli forces and appealed to all to “pull back from the brink” before the violence escalates even further.” ‘No one above law UN chief on Gaza bombing”

On Oct 23, former President Obama issued a statement that included: “But even as we support Israel, we should also be clear that how Israel prosecutes this fight against Hamas matters. In particular, it matters — as President Biden has repeatedly emphasized — that Israel’s military strategy abides by international law, including those laws that seek to avoid, to every extent possible, the death or suffering of civilian populations….  Palestinians have also lived in disputed territories for generations; that many of them were not only displaced when Israel was formed but continue to be forcibly displaced by a settler movement that too often has received tacit or explicit support from the Israeli government; that Palestinian leaders who’ve been willing to make concessions for a two-state solution have too often had little to show for their efforts; and that it is possible for people of good will to champion Palestinian rights and oppose certain Israeli government policies in the West Bank and Gaza without being anti-semitic.” Barack Obama: My statement on Israel and Gaza”

In the following English language press conference on October 13, Hamas claims that its attack on Oct 7 was in reaction to 70 years of abusive Israeli occupation of Palestinian lands and was defensive and aimed only at military targets. Their attack was not undertaken in a vacuum, and as excessive as I think it was, it would be wise to understand their claims. Strangely today is the first I heard about this press conference: Hamas press conference

If Israel displaces Hamas as the government of Gaza, what are its plans for future governance of the area (assuming that there is anyone left to govern)? Post columnist David Ignatius discusses this issue. “Israel Gazans Hamas war rebuilding”  In the meantime we should demand that Israel end its slaughter of innocent Palestinians.

Preserving the Global Order

As the number of BRICS member countries grows, the international organizations through which countries cooperate are at risk of fragmenting.  To keep the IMF, World Bank, WTO, WHO, ITU and other international bodies together to perform their financial, standard setting, and coordination functions that have contributed so much to global prosperity, each member must believe that they are fairly represented in such bodies.

Unlike the UN’s one country one vote, members of the International Monetary Fund and World Bank, have votes (quotas) that reflect their economic importance. The fundamental criteria for the financial contribution and voting share of each member country in the IMF and WB are the economic size of its economy and its share of world trade and reserves.

When they were established after WWII in 1944, the total size of the IMF was 8.8 billion dollars of which $2.9 billion was pledged by the U.S. giving it a quota (and vote) of 33% of the total. Any major policy decisions or amendments to the IMF’s Article of Agreement require an 85% support. This gave, and continues to give, the U.S. a veto over any important measure it doesn’t like. At that time the U.K. quota of $1.3 billion was 15% of the total and that of France was $0.65 billion or 7.4% of the total.

The Republic of China was an original member of the IMF in 1944, whose seat was transferred to the Peoples Republic of China in 1980 with a quota of 1.2 billion SDR which was 3.1% of the total of SDR 39.0 billion. “What are SDRs?” This was promptly increased to 1.8 billion SDRs (4.6%). The quotas and voting strength of the IMF’s six largest members in 1980 and 2022 were:

                        1980               2022

U.S.           19.83%               16.08%

U.K.             6.94%               4.03%

Germany    5.13%               5.31%

China           4.62%              6.08%

France.        4.57%              4.03%

Japan.          3.96%              6.14%

Over the last 4 decades, China and many other lower income countries have grown significantly. U.S. GDP in 1980 was $9.7 trillion in 2022 dollars while China’s was $1.03 trillion in 2022 dollars.  But by 2022 the US economy had double while Chinas increased almost 14 times. The adjustments in member quotas failed miserably to reflect these changes. The US quota dropped from 19.8% to 16.5% while China’s increased from 4.62% to 6.08%

In 2022 GDPs of the top five were:

  1. United States: $20.89 trillion
  2. China: $14.72 trillion
  3. Japan: $5.06 trillion
  4. Germany: $3.85 trillion
  5. United Kingdom: $2.67 trillion
  6. India: $2.66 trillion

To quote from Wikipedia: “To further rebalance power in the IMF, China appealed for changes that would transfer voting power to developing economies. In 2010, the Chinese executive director of the Fund, Zhou Xiaochuan, addressed the board and asserted that giving more power to the emerging economies was critical for the group’s legitimacy, accountability and long-term health.”

In the IMF/WB annual meetings that just concluded in Morocco have called for an increase in IMF resources but distributed equiproportionately, i.e., with no change in members’ relative voting weight (quotas). This moves member quotas even further away from the basic formula for determining them. Why and what might be the consequence?

The U.S. has dominated the IMFs policies from its inception largely in furtherance of developing and preserving a liberal trading order that has benefited the world. But it is apparently unwilling to give up its veto power (a quota of more than 15%). Such dominance risks corruption over time: “Monopolies”   “The Dollar Again”

But if the governance of the IMF is not seen as fair by its members, they have an incentive to look elsewhere. China understandably wants the status and influence of its increased size. So, Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa (BRICS) have started to go their own way with China’s Belt and Road Initiative, Asia Infrastructure Investment Bank, and other China lead initiatives. More countries are joining the BRICS. The fragmenting of international norms and rules for cross countries relations threatens to harm global prosperity. As an early example, sovereign debt restructuring agreements are now being held up because of China’s reluctance to play ball with the term agreed by the other sovereign lenders.

U.S. and IMF—wake up. “Goodbye unipolar world and good riddance”

Golda

 The natural, instinctive reaction to abuse is revenge. Civilization requires taming many instincts useful for survival by hunters/gatherers, including the urge for revenge. Aggressive war is one of the worst and ugliest forms of revenge, but in “modern” society most of us are far removed from war’s realities when the war is “over there.”

Many movies do the best job possible in confronting us with the individual, personal tragedies of war for those of you who only experience it on TV news. I have no doubt that if more people understood the nature and consequences of war, they would advocate it far less often.

One of those movies you should watch is Golda. Golda Meir was the Prime Minister of Israel during the Yom Kippur War of 1973. It very well depicts the pain, confusion, and tragedy of war (in this case an attack on Israel by Egypt, which Israel obviously could not avoid). We watched it last night and cried yet again.

Joan Baez

“Joan Baez: I am a noise” is at the top of my list of movies to see. I fell in love with her music listening to her free Friday concerts on the steps of Sproul Hall at the U of California, Berkeley in 1964 during the Free Speech Movement protests. I became, and remain, a big fan of Joan Baez, Simon and Garfunkel, Peter, Paul and Mary and many other folk as well as Irish and Andean folk music singers.

As I am writing this I am listening, as I often do sitting here in my easy chair, to Kate Wolf, which will be following automatically by Joan, etc. Tears often form as I listen, and I don’t really understand why. I think my life has been amazingly wonderful and exciting, full of happy and sad events. Why would the music that I have always loved so much tear me up? They are neither sad nor happy tears as my mind glides over time to the past. They really are a mystery. Perhaps they are tears of gratitude for taking my mind off the world outside us today. Joan sang of love and peace.

Israel and the WBGS – Next Steps

October 9, 2023

The first step and priority of any nation being attacked (e.g., Ukraine by Russian or Israel by Hamas) is to defend itself as best it can. The next step, how ever,  can easily succumb to the urge to seek revenge, as called for by Netanyahu, who is “ implementing a ‘full siege’ of the densely populated Gaza Strip — ‘no electricity, no food, no fuel,’ said Defense Minister Yoav Gallant — as part of a campaign that is aimed at destroying Hamas’s military capabilities” Wash Post “Israel-Gaza war Hamas” But such retaliation would be another escalation up the ladder toward total destruction—or, if you prefer, deeper into the hole.

“Even a decisive Israeli military victory is unlikely to end the country’s increasingly perilous security challenges. It’s not even clear what “winning” means…. “If the war stopped today, or even after Gaza looks like another war zone, Hamas has effectively won,” said Dan Kurtzer, a former U.S. Ambassador to Israel. “New Yorker: Israel may decimate Hamas, but can it win this war”

The more emotionally and politically difficult second step would aim to lower hostilities in the more distant future. It would seek to understand and deal with the issues that led to Hama’s brutal attack. “Wash Post: The Israeli-Hamas war has two paths forward”

“Palestinian demands are both clear and precise: Freeing all prisoners; respecting the sanctity of Palestinian holy sites in Jerusalem, ending the siege on Gaza and more.” “The Gaza war is lost, but will Netanyahu concede?” Should Israel negotiate these demands or retaliate?

The goals of the Oslo Accord that I worked hard to help implement –the two state solution—have not been realized. Both Israel and the Palestine Authority created according to the Oslo Accord have failed to measure up to their required roles and the U.S. has failed to hold each to account.

To quote from my blog on Oct 7 “Hamas’s objectives in the operation are no secret: First, retaliate and punish Israel for its occupation, oppression, illegal settlement, and desecration of Palestinian religious symbols, especially Al-Aqsa Mosque in Jerusalem; second, take aim at Arab normalisation with Israel that embraces its apartheid regime in the region; and lastly, secure another prisoner exchange in order to get as many Palestinian political prisoners released from Israeli jails as possible.”  https://wcoats.blog/2023/10/07/palestine-israel-and-wbgs/

In 2006, when Hamas won the most seats in the new Palestinian legislature “then Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice mused, ‘Certainly, I’ve asked why nobody saw it coming, and I hope that we will take a hard look, because it does say something about perhaps not having had a good enough pulse on the Palestinian population.’ The words are haunting, once again, today.” “New Yorker: Israel may decimate Hamas, but can it win this war”

The U.S. winked when the election losing Fatah, headed by Mahmoud Abbas, ignored the election results and took over the Palestinian Authority. The U.S. closed its eyes all together when Israelis murdered Palestinian men, women and children and bulldozed their homes to make way for more Israeli settlements. What were we expecting?

Palestine – Israel and WBGS

Written October 7 at 3:30pm

Netanyahu says Israel ‘at war’ after Hamas attack; Israeli civilians and military personnel held captive in Gaza Strip Israeli air force strikes killed about 200 people and injured 1,600, the Palestinian Health Ministry said. Hamas said it has taken “senior officers” hostage.” Washington Post: Israel Gaza rocket attack”

“Israeli forces are responding to an unprecedented early morning attack by Islamist Hamas militants by launching land and airstrikes on the Gaza Strip following weeks of rising tensions along the region’s volatile border. Saturday’s surprise attack from Hamas, which came during a major Jewish holiday and followed the 50th anniversary of the start of the 1973 Yom Kippur war, has led to Israel’s deadliest day in at least 75 years.” Washington Post 11/7/20223

“Hamas said it rained 150 rockets on Tel Aviv
BEIRUT — In response to the Israeli bombardment of Palestine Tower in Gaza, Hamas said it had fired 150 rockets toward Tel Aviv on Saturday evening.” Washington Post 11/7/20223

“Hamas’s objectives in the operation are no secret: First, retaliate and punish Israel for its occupation, oppression, illegal settlement, and desecration of Palestinian religious symbols, especially Al-Aqsa Mosque in Jerusalem; second, take aim at Arab normalisation with Israel that embraces its apartheid regime in the region; and lastly, secure another prisoner exchange in order to get as many Palestinian political prisoners released from Israeli jails as possible.” “From hubris to humiliation-the 10 hours that shocked Israel”

*******************. 

Wars are almost always wrong and disastrous and this one is no exception.  The causalities on both sides are still unfolding. Until this mornings attacks, the aggressor during the earlier part of this year was almost always Israel. This year alone until yesterday Israelis had killed 227 Palestinians and wounded 8,488, many of them children, often in the process of bulldozing Palestinian homes to make room for illegal Israeli settlements. This was almost 8 times the number of Israelis killed by Palestinians – 29 almost all of whom (25) were killed in the West Bank.

The history of the region and my work there is reported in “My Travels to Jerusalem”  But since writing that book an extreme right wing apartheid government has taken over Israel and dropped all pretense of treating the Palestinians fairly. And in the meantime, the Palestinian Authority established as part of the Oslo Accords continues to suffer from its own problems. I weep for my Israeli and Palestinian friends.

Saving Liberalism

A society occupied by virtuous people, whose behavior is self-governed by the moral principles taught by the major religions, needs few laws from their governments.

If we are free—if we live in a free society—we can and will discriminate in our choices as we see fit. We will choose what is best for us and what we like most. We will choose our friends and clubs. In our economic dealings, if our choices are not based on the objective merits of a product or an employee (if we are an employer), we will suffer the consequences (pay more for an inferior good or service or less productive employee). Thus, our self-interest will drive us toward the right kind of discrimination/choices in the market. “Are Venture Capitalists Racists?”

Morally, making choices that treat others unfairly, dishonestly, or rudely, diminishes the harmony and quality of social life. The lack of such moral standards will diminish us in the eyes of others and ultimately in our own eyes. If every member of our society adopted and lived by such moral standards, we would be the freest, happiest, and most flourishing society possible.

In such a society, the government would only need to protect us from the few criminals (foreign and domestic) who attempted to violate our persons and our property, set the standards that allow markets to function efficiently, enforce our property and other rights, and adjudicate contract disputes. With regard to government employment and activities, the law should forbid discrimination on basis not relevant to the government’s purposes, e.g., when hiring workers, the government should not be allowed to discriminate on the basis of race, religion, sexual orientation, or national origin.    

In the laudable objective of overcoming a history of slavery and morally inappropriate discrimination our laws have gone further. The 1964 Civil Rights Act extended the antidiscrimination provisions appropriate for the government to private sector businesses serving the public. Businesses renting rooms (hotels) or selling goods (grocery stores or restaurants) were forbidden to discriminate on the basis of race, religion, sexual orientation or national origin. See the wonderful movie “Green Book” if you haven’t already.

Rather quickly the courts were asked to sort out the law’s application when it violated other individual rights such as adhering to one’s religious beliefs. Should a Satan worshiper cook, who does not believe in marriage, have to bake a wedding cake for someone’s wedding? I don’t mean to suggest that such questions can be or will be easily resolved, though in a free society in which the vast majority of residents adhered to good moral values, no one would need to be forced to provide any service they didn’t want to, and no one would be deprived of their wedding cake either.

A further step was taken toward allowing a greater exercise of individual judgement about race when the Supreme Court effectively overruled Regents of the University of California v. Bakke (1978), and validated some “affirmative action in college admissions provided that race had a limited role in decisions.” Otherwise giving “race-based affirmative action programs in college admissions processes violate the Equal Protection Clause of the Fourteenth Amendment” of the US Constitution. Students for Fair Admissions v. Harvard – Wikipedia

In my view, a college that bends admission criteria in order to increase the diversity of its student body is acting wisely and in the interest of the learning experience of its students. My view of a college having to satisfy a government given racial or some other quota is the opposite. “Affirmative action, based on the logic that disparities equal discrimination, entrenched the idea of equal results over equal treatment…. Later, in the mid-1980s, harassment law enshrined the idea that free speech must be suppressed to eliminate subjectively defined ‘hostile environments’ for protected groups….

“The steady devolution of lawmaking authority from Congress to administrators produces a paradoxical situation whereby organizations must violate the text of the law (non-discrimination) to satisfy activist interpretations of law. Colorblindness is now illegal.” “Two Roads to Woke”  “Affirmative Action”

Thus, two centuries of debate over how best to trade off and balance conflicting individual rights in order to maximize our overall freedom that helped produce the greatest human flourishing the world has ever experienced, is at risk of being shouted down and silenced. “Human Progress”  Shutting down that debate and related questions in order to spare one group or another the discomfort of hearing something they don’t want to hear would mean the end of the liberal/neoliberal world we have built.

To take but one example, I strongly disagree with much of the underlying premises of Critical Race Theory. But books explaining its views belong in the library and high school history class discussions. I will only convince my friends of its errors with my arguments, not by burning its books. We only conduct our lives on the basis of what we really believe. “Virginia Samuels library LGBTQ books”

So, what is to be done to preserve our classically liberal principles and personal freedom? The innovation and dynamism our freedom has enabled, which has so dramatically lifted our standards of living, has also forced adjustments on some that have not always been easy. Trade theory has always talked about the need to compensate the (few) losers. But the safety nets we have built have generally been inadequate and rarely received the attention they need. “Replacing Social Security with a Universal Basic Income” The other thing we must do is to use our freedom to speak to explain the powerful benefits of our neoliberal principles. Teach, teach, teach.  “Deirdre McCloskey – Why Liberalism Works–How True Liberal Values Produce a Freer More Equal Prosperous World for All”

Sabastian Edwards has written a wonderful book about the rise and potential fall of neoliberalism in Chile, which makes these points. Much misinformation surrounds the activities of the Chilean economists trained at the University of Chicago—the Chicago Boys–who transformed Chiles economy from the repressive import substitution, state dominated model prevalent in South America at the time to a neoliberal free market model of Milton Friedman and the Chicago school, during and following the dictatorship of General Augusto Pinochet following his 1973 overthrow of democratically elected President Salvador Allende. Edwards’ account is extraordinarily detailed and balanced. His advice at the end for saving neoliberalism, classical liberalism, freedom or whatever you want to call it deserves our most serious attention. “Chile-Project Chicago-The Downfall of Neoliberalism”