Month: April 2020

The order to reopen–who gives it?

Like all of us, President Trump is eager to reopen the economy. Does he have the authority to do so or do state governors? Fortunately, neither can force us to start eating out again, or return to our offices. We remain a country where those decisions rest with each of us individually (or jointly with your boss with regard to returning to your office, shop or factory). That means that those parts of the economy that have shut down will get going again when the affected businesses have taken measures to protect their customers and employees sufficient to regain their customers’ trust that they are safe places to visit. But as I argued last month, that should always have been the basis of social interactions.  “Beating-covid-19: Compulsion-or-Persuasion-and-guidance”

The broad-based, blunt instrument of sheltering at home unless your activities are vital (says who?) is imposing staggering damage to the economy.  The best way to minimize that damage is to restore public trust as quickly as possible that those with it are being isolated and treated.  A blanket shut down of non-essential activities is not the best approach. Each of us in our personal situation can better determine where we feel safe to go than can a government agency.  However, some of us will not give sufficient weight to the dangers of exposing our friends and the general public to the disease if we might have it.  Public policy should educate the public to the dangers of covid-19 and how best to protect ourselves and should minimize the financial incentive to continue working when sick. State coercion (mandatory quarantines) should only be applied to those testing positive for the virus.  This approach will allow all firms and stores to operate whose employees and customers judge them to be safe and will give businesses maximum incentive to make themselves safe.

Covid-19 will be around for at least another year or two until an effective vaccine is available and then distributed to more than 60 percent of the world population. The most effective way to contain its spread in the interim is to undertake widespread, quick, and accurate testing and to quarantine those who test positive with efficient contact tracing.  Adding the newly available tests for antibodies indicating immunity to the virus will identify those who are no longer susceptible to acquiring or spreading the disease. They should be safe in public.  Other corona viruses have created immunity in those who have had them and SARS-CoV-2 is expected to do the same, though this has not yet been established.

The U.S. has belatedly increased its testing for the virus. Initially it impeded the development and supply of test kits. As of April 16, the U.S. has tested 10,266 people per million while Germany has tested twice that. The U.S. by that date had 105 deaths per million while Germany had less than half that.  The Food and Drug Administration (FDA) should get out of the way and allow profit seeking entrepreneurs to flood the market with test kits.  The government should focus its (our) money on a large increase in testing for the virus and quarantining those testing positive and those they contacted and should offer significant financial prizes for an effective vaccine and for the development (or discovery) of effective treatments. Unlike patents as an incentive, this will encourage collaboration and knowledge sharing among those attempting to develop treatments.

On April 16 President Trump outlined guidance for the phased reopening of closed businesses and activities that is consistent with the approach outline above.  The government’s traditional public health role is important. But much more discretion should be given to individual case by case judgements about risks and entrepreneurial initiatives about remedies rather than broad based government edicts.

We will not return and cannot be required to return to the public square until we believe it is safe to do so. Individual shops and firms have a financial incentive to find convincing approaches to being safe and will get there quicker than even the best-intentioned government official issuing instructions and mandates. The government has an important role to play in fighting this virus and facilitating our return to normal life, but it should remove impediments it often creates to the private sector’s management of the related risks and the huge and unnecessary damage it imposes on the economy.

Econ 201: CARES Act–Who pays for it?

April 11, 2010

Congress has authorized over 2 trillion dollars (so far) to help those harmed by the partial shutdown of the economy undertaken to slow the spread of the SARS-CoV-2 virus, and to facilitate its rapid recovery when it is safe for people to return to work. The idea is that as the government has requested/mandated non-essential workers to stay home, and non-essential companies (restaurants, theaters, bars, hotels, etc.) have chosen to close temporarily or have been forced to by risk averse customers or government mandates, the government has an obligation to compensate them for their lost income. Above and beyond the requirements of fairness, such financial assistance should help prevent permanent damage to the economy from something that is meant to be a temporary interruption in its operation. No good economic purpose would be served, for example, by lenders foreclosing on mortgage and other loans to workers sheltered in place at home with no income with which to service them. Some of the increased spending quite rightly will go to improve our ability to deal with covid-19 directly (expanded hospital capacity, virus testing capacity, vaccine research and development, etc.)

Obviously, it will be impossible to prevent some amount of waste and corruption from such a huge increase in expenditures. Every rent seeker on the planet has been lobbying Congress to get a piece of the action. In the design of these support programs every effort should be made to carefully target them on the people and activities appropriate to the “above objectives, to remove them and their associated distortions of economic resource allocation when the crisis has passed (i.e., keep them temporary), and to provide watchdog oversight of their implementation. Unfortunately, President Trump is already undermining such oversight. “How-trump-is-sabotaging-the-coronavirus-rescue-plan”  Nonetheless, the objective of minimizing the economic damage of a temporary forced shutdown of a significant part of the economy is appropriate.

The question explored here is who will pay for it and how.  The entertainment output of the economy (restaurants, movie theaters, hotels, vacation travel) is to a large extent non-essential, at least for a few months. If those are shuttered, about 20 percent (my guess for purposes of this analysis) of our economic output and the incomes of those producing them will be lost for the duration of the shutdown. A central goal of the “Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and. Economic Security Act” (CARES Act) is to prevent this necessary shutdown from killing that part of the economy and from spilling over into others. The goal is to enable it to restart as quickly and easily as health conditions permit. Thus, idled workers who would not be able to pay their rent/mortgage, or electric bill, or buy food without help should not be evicted for temporary nonpayment etc. The government might pay them for their lost income directly (unemployment insurance) or it might pay their employer to continue paying their wages for non-work under one program or another, thus continuing their health insurance and other benefits. These details are important but not the subject of this note.  The simplest assumption is that they all receive cash payments sufficient to see them through the shutdown (universal basic income, guaranteed minimum income or whatever you want to call it).

The starting fact/assumption is that the economy’s output and thus income is 20 percent or so lower for the next few months than it was a few months ago. Everyone on average has 20 percent less income, but that average consists of those who continue working as before and those sitting at home earning nothing.  If those unemployed are to receive income support (UBI), those still working and those clipping investment coupons must pay for it.  Paying an income subsidy to the unemployed does not create income, it redistributes it.

The $2 trillion plus authorized by Congress for these purposes will be debt financed, i.e. the government will borrow the money (adding to its deficit of $1 trillion for 2020 already budgeted).  So, to examine who pays for this program we must start by asking who will buy this additional debt?  In the past the Chinese and Germans funded an important part of our debts (via their trade surpluses with the US.  “Who-pays-uncle-sam’s-deficits”  China’s current account surplus with the U.S. is now negligible and it and most every other country in the world will have the financing of their own covid-19 expenditures to worry about. Those purchasing the additional Treasury bonds will thus be largely Americans who must shift their spending from other things (other investments or consumption) to the bonds and thus to the incomes of the unemployed these programs are supposed to be helping.  To the extent that new bond buyers are diverting their spending on other financial instruments interest rates on such instruments will tend to rise.

At this point very little money has been disbursed under CARES and no new government bonds to finance it have been issued. As individuals and firms miss rent and debt service payments, their lenders are being squeezed for the funds with which they must service those financing them (this is why we call banks financial intermediaries). Utility companies faced with nonpayments by their customers must borrow to continue paying their own employees, etc.  Scrambling for such funds would drive up interest rates in funding markets where it not for the Federal Reserve’s willingness to provide the needed liquidity. Similarly, with regard to the supply of funds to financial markets (the other side of bank’s balance sheets), normal investors are interrupting or even withdrawing funding in order to cover their own income shortfalls. This again squeezes financial sector liquidity and the flow of funds from lenders to borrowers needed to finance the remaining economic activity.

Enter the Federal Reserve.  In order to supply the missing funds–the missing rent and debt service payments–needed to keep the financial system flowing and in balance–the Fed has supplied almost $2 trillion to banks over the last 6 weeks, largely by outright purchases of treasury securities, though it has also opened a number of lending facilities. Bank reserve deposits at the Fed increased about $1 trillion over this period and M2 grew by about the same amount. On April 9, the Fed announced that it was opening or expanding facilities to support CARES Act objectives with up to another $2.3 trillion (leveraged by Treasury financial support to cover losses on any Fed loans provided in support of the CARES Act).  Federal Reserve Press Releases  This includes support for lending by the Small Business Administration (refinancing of SBA loans), the Main Street Lending Program administered by banks, Primary and Secondary Market Corporate Credit Facilities, and the Municipal Liquidity Facility. These are dramatic expansions of Fed credit operations and the details of eligibility of borrowers and of the facilities’ administration are critically important. Ensuring that this massive government intervention in the economy creates the right incentives for a quick rebound in the economy when it can reopen and that these interventions are indeed temporary will be difficult and is very important. But the question I want to address here is whether this monetary financing on such a huge scale will be inflationary.

Simplifying and reviewing, if economic output/income falls by, say 20 percent, and the loss is shared by those working with those temporarily laid off (or idle) by workers lending money to those idled, the Fed need not be involved. However, as is often the case with fiscal policy, it is simply beyond the administrative capacity of the government to launch and coordinate such a redistribution of income quickly and smoothly enough to avoid the disruptions of credit flows described above. Instead, the Fed has printed the money paid to those idled by shuttering 20 percent of the economy. As a result, the idled workers have their regular income (more or less) from newly printed money, and the rest have their regular incomes, but the economy is producing 80 less for them to buy. The “excess” income constitutes the inflationary potential. If this income is voluntarily saved (i.e. a temporary increase in the demand for money), the increased saving would be indirectly financing the spending of the unemployed. It is not unreasonable to expect this to reflect actual behavior for a shutdown of a month or two. But should it drag on for many months the extra saving held in anticipation of a reopening of restaurants and theaters, etc. will seek other consumption outlets and prices will begin to rise.

With luck, the economy will begin to return to “normal” after a few months and the Fed will begin to withdraw its monetary injection as loans and payment delinquencies are paid off from increased output/income. The artificially preserved incomes will increasingly be spent on restored output without significant inflationary consequences.

But the CARES Act provides for the forgiveness of loans by firms that kept or that rehire their workers promptly. As the Fed sells its treasuries back to the public (or allows them to mature without replacing them), the Treasury will be issuing the additional debt needed to fund the $2 trillion plus of CARES Act expenditures, including the forgiveness of debt described above. In short, to avoid the inflationary consequences that would normally flow from the Fed’s massive increase in the money supply, the monetary financing must be replaced with fiscal debt financing.  It is hard to see where the money will come from to buy such a large increase debt (some, but not much, will probably come from the foreign financing implicit in an increase in our balance of payments deficits, but the rest of the world is now being saturated with its own debt) without an increase in market interest rates, potentially a significant increase in such interest rates. To the extent that financing remains monetary and pushes up prices, the rising inflation rate will be added to nominal market interest rates compounding the pressure of expanding real debt.  The long looming US fiscal debt problem may be near.

Econ 101: covid-19 resource priorities

U.S. cases of covid-19 (those testing positive for the virus that causes it) continue their exponential growth exceeding 333,000 on April 5 with over 9,500 associated deaths. In a few days some hospitals will run out of the protective equipment and ventilators needed by their staff and patients.  How should the existing stock of these items be allocated to the most urgent and/or “worthy” uses and how should the inadequate supply be most effectively augmented?  Should a central authority (the “government”) choose who gets them or should the highest bidder in the market?  Should new supplies be demanded by the government employing the Defense Production Act of 1950, or should producers respond to the profits of higher prices? Should we follow the socialist or the capitalist approach?

In normal times (which these are not) the demand for hospital supplies is met by a competitive market of producers in response to prices offered by hospitals. In a well-functioning economy these prices reflect the cost of producing them and a modest profit sufficient to attract the desired supply. In this way scarce resources (the supply of any resource, starting with labor time, is limited) are allocated to their most valued uses as measured by what people are willing to pay for them. Because of the rapid and dramatic increase in the need for face masks (N95), and other protective gear needed by doctors and nurses the current supply does not satisfy the demand. This includes both emergency stocks and the flow of newly produced supplies.  Unbelievably some hospitals are preventing doctors from wearing appropriate protective gear at the detriment of their own safety and the future supply of doctors. “Doctors-say-hospitals-are-stopping-them-from-wearing-masks”  In Italy the shortage of ventilators is already causing doctors to deny them to those most likely to die in order to make them available to those more likely to live with their assistance (triage).

How should this inadequate stock of equipment be allocated among those demanding it, all of whom cannot be satisfied?  The two broad classes of approaches to allocating the existing supply until it can be increased are for a government body to determine who needs it most according to some politically accepted criteria or for market suppliers to allocate it to the highest bidders. Many books have been written to document why market allocation (capitalism) has dramatically outperformed government allocation (socialism) thus lifting most of the world’s population out of dire poverty (over 90% by 2009). But what about the emergency situation we are now in with the exponential spread of a new virus that is about ten times as deadly as the annual flu?

“The governors of New York, Texas, Illinois and other states have said they are competing with the federal government and other states in a mad scramble for lifesaving supplies such as surgical masks, N95 respirators, isolation gowns and ventilators that are widely drained or out of stock.” .” “Gouged-prices-middlemen-medical-supply-chaos-why-governors-are-so-upset-with-trump”

The oversight of healthcare delivery in the U.S. resides in the states and municipalities rather than the Federal government. However, the Federal government does support medical research and provides health guidance to the states.  Of the approximately 5,100 hospitals in the United States the Federal government owns about 200, primarily for its military and veterans. It also maintains its own emergency stockpile of medical equipment for its hospitals and to backstop shortages in state and private hospitals. In principle the Federal government could set standards for which of these non-Federal hospitals would benefit most from being allocated ventilators and other equipment from the Federal stockpile if their own supplies become inadequate. It might even dictate how private market supply would be allocated in the event of shortages.

Government allocation carries a larger risk of political and personal corruption factors influencing resource allocation than does market allocation. While the private market is not without corrupt players, the bottom line of needing to attract and satisfy customers who have other options in order to make a profit to stay in business disciplines private suppliers and tends to weed out crooks. A company’s reputation for honesty and product quality is a critical part of its staying in business. Poorly performing companies go out of business, while poorly performing and/or corrupt governments rarely do. New York governor Andrew Cuomo’s request to President Trump for help with its shortage of ventilators and other medical supplies met with pandemic expert Jared Kushner’s rebuttal that the governor was over estimating New York’s needs and that more ventilators should be allocated elsewhere.  Nothing political here. Move along.

Another and potentially more damaging potential of government allocation concerns the U.S. government’s “competition” with other countries for the scare supplies. “The White House late Thursday ordered Minnesota mask manufacturer 3M to prioritize U.S. orders over foreign demand, using its authority under the Defense Production Act, or DPA, to try to ease critical shortages of N95 masks at U.S. hospitals.

“The Trump administration has asked 3M to stop exporting the masks to Canada and Latin America, and to import more from 3M’s factories in China, the company said Friday…. At the same time, officials in Berlin criticized the United States on Friday over what they said was the diversion of 200,000 masks that were en route from China…. These are things that Americans rely on,” Trudeau said, “and it would be a mistake to create blockages or reduce the amount of back-and-forth trade of essential goods and services, including medical goods, across our border.” “White-House-scrambles-scoop-up-medical-supplies-angering-canada-germany”

“Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said his government has been ‘forcefully’ reminding American counterparts that trade ‘goes both ways across the border.’  Thousands of nurses in Windsor, Ontario, he noted, travel to Detroit each day to work in hospitals there. Several of them have since tested positive for covid-19.” These steps are incredibly short-sighted as is Trump’s trade policy in general. As the biggest and strongest country in the word, the U.S. should be engaging with the rest of the world to lead a cooperative approach to fighting covid-19 rather than throwing its weight around because, at the moment, it still can. These are the sorts of behavior that can lead to war.

Following quickly on the heels of allocating the existing stockpile of equipment, is the closely related question of how to increase and allocate the supply going forward as quickly as possible.  Market allocation of the existing stock prioritizes those willing to pay the most as an indication of the intensity of their need (or who has more money to spend, but the wealthy always have a greater impact on allocation whether through government or the market). Established firms aim to maximize their profit over time and will take into account their long run relationship with regular customers when agreeing on prices for the existing supply. This limits so called “price gouging”, but the prospect of higher prices accelerates the market’s supply response. Many governors instead “pleaded for the White House to invoke the Defense Production Act, the legislation that would compel American companies to make critical supplies.” “Gouged-prices-middlemen-medical-supply-chaos-why-governors-are-so-upset-with-trump”

While history clearly demonstrates that market allocation is superior to government command of the economy, it struggles in current emergency circumstances even if or when government interference is removed (such as the government’s interference with market development and supply of covid-19 test kits).  Knowledge is essential for good decision making.  A virtue of market allocation is that knowledge that is impossible  to properly centralize in socialist economies can be exploited in decentralized individual decision making in response to market generated prices that match supply with demand (See F. A. Hayek’s “The_Fatal_Conceit”).  Markets rely on trust that is built in various ways from experience. The Internet reports reviews of products by users. Uber drivers are rated by riders. Company reputations are carefully built and protected.

In the current sudden surge in demand for certain medical supplies the system is overloaded, and hospitals search beyond their usual suppliers. New marketers emerge to help hospitals find new suppliers. The reliability and quality of the supplied products lack market experience and feedback.  Governments can play a supportive role by requiring transparency about product contents and/or performance but can also get in the way if regulations are more costly than their benefits.  “’The dynamic of the market is very weird at this point,’ said Andrew Stroup, a co-founder of Project N95, a nonprofit clearinghouse working to connect hospitals with suppliers. The group has received more than 2,000 requests from health-care institutions searching for more than 110 million pieces of personal protective equipment.”   “Gouged-prices-middlemen-medical-supply-chaos-why-governors-are-so-upset-with-trump”

In the imperfect world we all live in we would do best to maximize the role of private entrepreneurs and firms to develop and supply the best possible products, limiting the government’s role to protecting private property and contract enforcement, and establishing standards that help promote consumer confidence and trust in suppliers. Private, profit motivated producers maximize their profits by best surviving and satisfying the desires of their customers.