Author: Warren Coats

I specialize in advising central banks on monetary policy and the development of the capacity to formulate and implement monetary policy.  I joined the International Monetary Fund in 1975 from which I retired in 2003 as Assistant Director of the Monetary and Financial Systems Department. While at the IMF I led or participated in missions to the central banks of over twenty countries (including Afghanistan, Bosnia, Croatia, Egypt, Iraq, Israel, Kazakhstan, Kenya, Kosovo, Kyrgystan, Moldova, Serbia, Turkey, West Bank and Gaza Strip, and Zimbabwe) and was seconded as a visiting economist to the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (1979-80), and to the World Bank's World Development Report team in 1989.  After retirement from the IMF I was a member of the Board of the Cayman Islands Monetary Authority from 2003-10 and of the editorial board of the Cayman Financial Review from 2010-2017.  Prior to joining the IMF I was Assistant Prof of Economics at UVa from 1970-75.  I am currently a fellow of Johns Hopkins Krieger School of Arts and Sciences, Institute for Applied Economics, Global Health, and the Study of Business Enterprise.  In March 2019 Central Banking Journal awarded me for my “Outstanding Contribution for Capacity Building.”  My recent books are One Currency for Bosnia: Creating the Central Bank of Bosnia and Herzegovina; My Travels in the Former Soviet Union; My Travels to Afghanistan; My Travels to Jerusalem; and My Travels to Baghdad. I have a BA in Economics from the UC Berkeley and a PhD in Economics from the University of Chicago. My dissertation committee was chaired by Milton Friedman and included Robert J. Gordon. I live in National Landing Va 22202

Trump’s Record so far

So far Trump II has made or is making a number of changes that have benefited our economy.  However, his delivery on his key campaign promises is mixed.

Trump promised to “stop the migrant invasion,” and to carry out “the largest deportation operation in American history.” He delivered. Southern border attempted entries that were blocked in 2023 and 2024 of 2,475,670 and 2,135,000, dropped to 237,538 in 2025 and authorized new arrivals dropped from 2.9 to 2.8 million in 2023 and 2024 to less the 2,000 in 2025. Deportations and voluntary exit jumped from over 460,000 and 700,000 in 2023 and 2024 to over 2,500,000 in 2025 of which and estimated 1.9 million were self exits.

However, the behavior of masked ICE agents, including the deaths of over 30 people in ICE custody in 2025 have created a public outcry.  In 2024 and earlier, the majority of ICE arrests focused on those with criminal records. In 2025, the government stated that 70% of ICE arrests involved individuals with criminal charges or convictions. However, independent analyses of 2025 data suggested that only 23% of those targeted in broader sweeps actually had prior criminal convictions, with many of those being for minor traffic or immigration offenses.

Trump also promised to “End inflation and make America affordable again,” and to “Stop outsourcing” and turn the U.S. into a “manufacturing superpower” by bringing factories back to the United States by tightening trade policy. The high CPI inflation rate of 4.1% in 2023 has fallen to 2.9% in 2024 and 2.7% in 2025. Manufacturing value added to US total output was $2.91 trillion in 2024 rising to $2.95 in 2025 all in 2017 dollars.

The US imports more than it exports. The US trade deficit in 2024 of $903.5 billion changed little at $901.5 billion in 2025, but the highly criticized and erratic US tariffs on imports (both threatened and actually imposed) where eventually struct down as illegal by the Supreme Court. They were not approved by Congress and where not justified to correct unfair trade practice by China, the EU and others. Rather they were threatened punishments if the target country did not give in to some other Trump demand. Here is an example of such an attempted abuse of tariffs. https://x.com/spectatorindex/status/2041842665172693207

Trump was right to promise to reduce costly and unproductive regulations and bureaucrat bloat. But his approach with the help of Elon Musk and the DOGE swat teams was misdirected and destructive. https://wcoats.blog/2025/04/27/trumps-chainsaw/

https://wcoats.blog/2025/07/01/econ-101-government-budgets/  Just how bad the Musk DOGE chainsaw was can been seen in the following deposition of one of the totally unqualified kids swinging the chainsaw. He is being questioned by a lawyer for an agency suing DOGE https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NXXvgZzK0Cc

And then there is the rest. Unlike previous US Presidents, Trump’s style of governing was that of a bully making threats. The result has not been good.

Trump the Egomaniac:  Putting his name on the Kennedy Center was sort of harmless (but distasteful) but then shutting it down all together is much less so and, and as is so often the case with Trump, hard to understand. The United States Institute of Peace is now the Donald J Trump Institute of Peace. Then there are programs he has created in his name: Trump accounts, Trump Gold Card, TrumpRx, Trump National Parks pass, etc. But he hasn’t stopped there, creating the “Trump-class” battleship. Though it violates the tradition of the U.S. Treasurer, currently Brandon Beach, signing our currency notes, Trump will do so in the future. While most of these displays of Trump’s name might be taken as the actions of an immature child, his proposal to issue special one dollar coins with his likeness seems to violate more than just good taste.

Trump the Authoritarian (postliberal)–domestic:  We have gotten used to Trump using his Truth Social or X/twitter accounts to damn and/or label as stupid or evil those who have criticized him, but he has used the power of his office to much more seriously attack his enemies or to force compliance with his policy views.

For example, after firing FBI director James Comey, who oversaw the probe of ties between Russia and Trump’s 2016 Presidential campaign, Trump repeatedly called for investigations of Comey over alleged leaks and handling of memos, and his current Justice Department has pursued renewed inquiries premised on those same grievances. Similarly motivated DOJ indictments or investigations have been made against Trump appointed officials John Bolton, Letitia James, Robert Mueller, Andrew McCabe, John Brennan, and others who played leading roles in Russia‑related or Ukraine‑related investigations.

Beyond criminal investigations, Trump has repeatedly used or threatened non‑criminal tools of the presidency—regulation, funding decisions, security clearances, and administrative enforcement—to punish domestic opponents. He has used threats to cut off federal funds to Democratic‑led “sanctuary cities” or jurisdictions whose leaders criticize him, framing them as “anarchist” or lawless and directing DOJ and other agencies to look for legal hooks to withhold grants.  Reuters and civil‑society trackers describe cases where universities, law firms, and other entities changed diversity or governance policies after threats of lost contracts, funding, or investigations from the administration. https://protectdemocracy.org/work/retaliatory-action-tracker/

If you have wondered, as I have, why the Republicans in Congress have not exercised their constitutional rights to block Trump’s abuses of power, often in direct contradiction of Republican party principles, I assume that it is their fear of his vindictive attacks on anyone who criticizes him.

Trump has both threatened and actually moved to cut federal funds to a small but high‑profile group of universities, mainly to force changes on campus protests, DEI, admissions, and governance policies. At Harvard University billions in federal research grants and contracts were frozen or terminated starting in spring 2025. The reasons given by the Trump administration were the alleged failure to protect Jewish students and to tolerate antisemitism linked to pro‑Palestinian activism and criticism of “woke” policies, DEI programs. The Trump administration demanded leadership and governance changes, review of academic departments for perceived ideological “bias,” and changes to admissions policies. Harvard has filed legal challenges and publicly refused to accept some of the administration’s conditions, while still facing a major funding freeze.

Similar reasons were given for stopping and/or threatening to stop funding of contracts and projects at Columbia, Cornell, Northwestern, and Princeton, University of Pennsylvania and UCLA.  These are the tip of an ugly iceberg that are very inappropriate in our liberal, limited government, freedom loving country.

But not all demands were objectionable.In October 2025, the White House offered a formal “compact” tying preferential access to federal funding to a raft of ideological and policy conditions that were agreed to by nine universities.Vanderbilt University.Dartmouth College.University of Pennsylvania.University of Southern California.Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT).University of Texas at Austin.University of Arizona.Brown University and University of Virginia.

Key policy demands in the compact included:

  • Ban consideration of race or sex in admissions and hiring.
  • Cap international undergraduate enrollment at around 15% and subject foreign students to additional vetting.
  • Freeze tuition for several years.
  • Eliminate or sharply curtail DEI offices and programs.
  • Guarantee “ideological balance” or a “vibrant marketplace of ideas” without a dominant ideology

Trump the untrustworthy Bully –International: Trump pledged to serve American interests first, promising to end America’s forever wars and claimed to deserve the Nobel Peace Prize. Virtually every aspect of his foreign policy has been a failure, weakening our standing abroad and our national security.

The second Trump administration has ended no wars, conducted military strikes in at least seven countries, and with Israel started a new war in Iran. It has been complicit with Israel in the ethnic cleaning of Gaza and increasingly the West Bank, and by financial and armament support of Israel. Trump has weakened or lost the support of traditional allies with his threats to annex Canada and Greenland and his insults of European and other countries for not supporting his illegal war in Iran and more generally.

Bully Trump’s approach is illustrated by his spat with Pope Leo XIV. On Truth Social Trump proclaimed:

“Donald J. Trump

@realDonaldTrump

A whole civilization will die tonight, never to be brought back again. I don’t want that to happen, but it probably will. However, now that we have Complete and Total Regime Change, where different, smarter, and less radicalized minds prevail, maybe something revolutionarily wonderful can happen, WHO KNOWS?”

On April 19, 2026, Trump warned that the U.S. would “knock out every single Power Plant, and every single Bridge” in the country if they did not accept a new “DEAL,” Not that Trump cares but many of his threats, specifically those targeting civilian infrastructure like water and power plants, have been flagged by international human rights groups as potential violations of international humanitarian law.

Pope Leo XIV declared President Donald Trump’s threat to destroy “a whole civilization” unacceptable and suggesting Americans should contact their representatives in Congress to stop the conflict.

“Today, as we all know, there has also been this threat against the entire people of Iran.  And this is truly unacceptable. There are certainly issues of international law here, but even more, it is a moral question concerning the good of the people as a whole, in its entirety.

“I would like to invite everyone to think in their hearts of so many innocent children, so many totally innocent elderly people who would also be victims of this escalation. I would like to invite everyone to pray, but also to seek ways to communicate. Perhaps with congressmen, with authorities, saying that we don’t want war, we want peace.”

Trump responded by calling the Pope “Weak on crime” and “Weak on Nuclear Weapons” and falsely claiming the Pontiff agreed that Iran should have nuclear capabilities. In his Easter Sunday message the Pope said: “Let those who have the power to unleash wars choose peace.”

Trump’s failure to understand market trades and deals as win-win has fed his zero sum bully approach. America has been seriously damaged as a result.  Trump has either ignored or withdrawn from the international agreements or organizations such as the WTO, and WHO that have provided the basis of global cooperation and flurishing since WWII. And we have suffered as a result. https://wcoats.blog/2026/03/21/america-alone/  

Trump’s disregard for law has also been an element of his financial corruption, the details of which will hopefully be properly investigated.  Since returning to the White House for his second term, Trump’s net worth has grown by approximately $2.5 billion to $3 billion according to most financial trackers. Trump’s Presidency has been very bad for America.

Homeland-part two

My apology for my lazy note on Homeland. It deserves much more so here goes.

The series, which ran for eight years from 2011-2020, centers on Carrie Matheson, a CIA officer with bipolar disorder and for its first two years (all we have watched so far) the Marine scout Nick Brody. Nick was captured in Iraq and held prisoner for eight years before returning to his wife and two kids. In the last few years of his captivity Nick was befriended by Abu Nazir a leader of al-Qaeda and charged with teaching Nazir’s son English. Nick adopts Islam and when an American drone attack kills Abu Nazir’s son, to whom Nick has become very attached, Nick agrees to work with Nazir against US interests. Nick returns home as a war hero, is elected to Congress and groomed to run as VP in the current VPs upcoming presidential campaign. Carrie correctly suspects that Nick has been turned by Nazir and sets out to expose him (or exploit his new position in the US government). Complicated enough?

Virtually every character, Carrie, Nick, Nick’s wife and son and daughter and his best friend (who fell in love with Nick’s wife during his absence and assumed death) as well as Carrie’s CIA colleagues, struggle with conflicting loyalties. Nick loves America and his family but hates what it has done (convincingly denounced as terrorism by Abu Nazir) and cooperates with Nazir in punishing it. The VP Nick expects to run with gave the orders for the drone attack that killed Nazir’s son. Each character is complex, which complex histories. Each side rightly sees the other as terrorists. The show is full of twists and turns and surprises. It is fantastic.

TV favorites

We watched and greatly enjoyed all ten seasons of Grantchester, built around the Clergymen of a British small town church and highly recommend it.

But we currently just finished watching the first of 8 seasons of Homeland and intend to watch the rest. It’s another CIA spy series build around a very talented but super intense bipolar female CIA analyst who drives everyone nuts but whose input they always want. It is a complex and fascinating story of an American marine who was captured and imprisoned for eight years in Bagdad and turned by his captures to work for our Islamic enemy but also loves the family he returned to after his eight years of imprisonment.

“The realism (Gansa consulted intel officers and diplomats) gave it serious weight. It racked up 6 Emmys and 7 Golden Globes, and even politicians like Obama openly praised it.

“If you’ve never watched it — or want to revisit peak paranoia TV — now’s the time. It’s smart, tense, messy, and still hits uncomfortably close to home.”

The series started in 2011 but often feels like it is depicting life today (war with Iran etc). Ito and I take a break after each episode during which I check email and the latest news on Trump/Bibi’s war in Iran and related events. It is truly weird. Going back and forth fifteen years as if they are the same. I highly recommend this.

LGBT literature

Should young teenagers be exposed to gay literature?  Should such books be banned from schools? The answer given to these questions depends, I am convinced, on whether the answerer believes that sexuality is God/genetically given or freely chosen by each of us. In the latter case some fear that novels that make gay life seem OK might lure some kids to choose it.

As a gay man myself, I wonder if those worried that being exposed to homosexual literature will find it so attractive and enticing that the young reader will be drawn (recruited) into such activities, are not repressed homosexuals themselves. Homosextuality is not something we choose. For most of us it is something we resisted and fought accepting. Who could possible think that being gay is more attractive than being a normal straight family member, though in these more enlighten and tolerant days it is much easier to accept being gay than when I struggled with it.

Homosexuality is God (nature) given. We can try to deny it, but we cannot make it go away. A proper understanding of this unchangeable fact is essential to living the happy and fulfilling lives each of us deserves. Literature that treats the subject and especially literature that depicts gay life as acceptable and compatible with happiness and success in life is an important source of information for those of us (every teenager) trying to understand and sort out who we are and where we want to go. Fortunately, movies and TV shows these days generally do a very good job of treating gay characters like any others. When I began to sense and struggle with my sexual attraction to men, the only such people I had ever heard of were child molesters who were run out of town. I was terrified by what I felt.

We live in a much better time (at least with regard to this topic). We often tell ourselves that God made us homosexual, but we chose to be gay. The sooner kids are exposed to the relevant literature the better for all of us.

Since writing the above, the US Supreme Court has ruled against a Colorado law that bans the discredited practice of advocating conversion therapy on the grounds that it violates the First Amendment protection of free speech. Though as I argued above, conversion therapy (turning a gay person into a heterosexual) certainly has been discredited, I agree with the almost unanimous Court decision. The First Amendment also protects my right to attack and condemn conversion therapy, and the freely open public debate about it is by far the best and ultimately most convincing way to expose its falsity.

This morning the Washington Post ran this story of a wise and brave librarian.

Tenn. library director fired over refusal to move LGBTQ+ books to adult section

A county board near Nashville voted to dismiss Luanne James, who said she stands by her decision, in the latest clash in a national debate over access to books.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2026/04/02/library-director-fired-lgbtq-books-tennessee/

Iran and the bomb

In the greatest public address any American President has ever given, Donald Trump claimed to have stopped Iran from developing atomic bombs (in the greatest lie every told).

Here are the facts. Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the Supreme Leader of Iran at the time, supported the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) that provided international inspection of Iran’s enrichment of uranium used for its nuclear power plants to ensure that it did not enrich it to the level needed for atomic bombs. Khamenei repeatedly stated that the production, stockpiling, and use of nuclear weapons are forbidden under Islamic law. This religious position is formalized as a fatwa (a legal ruling under Sharia), which the Iranian government has cited for decades as proof of the peaceful nature of its nuclear program.

During his first term, President Trump withdrew the US from the JCPOA and international inspections stopped. A broad international consensus holds that the US/Israeli attacks on Iran this year will drive Iran to overcome its religious restraints on developing the bomb and proceed to do so out of its need to defend itself. Thus, rather than preventing Iran from developing atomic bombs Trump (and his friend Bibi) have probably forced Iran to do so. For good measure US/Israel killed Khamenei with an airstrike on February 28. Maybe Trump will find a way to blame NATO for all of this???

Winning the War in Iran

Most of you know that I am an optimist (though often disappointed). But I am quite optimistic that Trump will declare victory in his and Israel’s illegal war in Iran very soon. Moreover, he will offer Iran enough (lifting of sanctions, etc.) that they will end their attacks as well, including, of course, insuring safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz. Israel will also end its attacks on Iran (as well as on Lebanon, Syria, West Bank and Gaza) because Trump will tell them to (or is it the other way around).

But here is the really optimistic forecast. Trump will blame the mess in Iran on the worst, most damaging Secretary of Defense we have ever had and fire Pete Hegseth. How is that for good news!

Fixing Palestine

In 1995 and 6 I led IMF technical assistance teams to Israel to establish the Palestine Monetary Authority as called for by the Oslo Accord. We were excited by the prospects of contributing to peace between the Arab and Jewish populations who had occupied the area for millennia (as well as new arrivals). We spoke, as did many others, of the Oslo Peace Process establishing a two-state solution to the struggles between the Palestinians and Jews since the establishment of Israel in 1948. In fact, we should have referred to the Oslo Accords as establishing only a step, a rather small one at that, toward a two-state solution—two independent states following Israel’s occupation of the West Bank and Gaza Strip in 1967.

I wrote about these experiences in “Palestine-The Oslo Accords Before and After-My Travels to Jerusalem” Our work was greatly facilitated by the fact that the governors of the Bank of Israel, Stan Fischer, and of the newly created Palestine Monetary Authority, George Abed, had been IMF colleagues. I asked each if they would write the foreword to my book. Stan declined saying that it was too sensitive a topic and George declined saying that my book was unfair to the Palestinians.

I have just finished reading a new account of the efforts to find peace in the area by two insiders with much wider exposure than I had had:  “Tomorrow is Yesterday-Life, Death and the Pursuit of peace in Israel/Palestine” by  Hussein Agha and Robert Malley. And I concluded that George Aben had been right about my account.

The two authors had been intimately involved in the many efforts to find agreement between the relevant parties. Drawing on their experience advising the Palestinian leadership (Arafat and Abbas) and US presidents (Clinton, Obama, and Biden) and their participation in secret talks over decades, Agha and Malley expose the weaknesses of those efforts and point to the potential of a very different approach. “They stress that the two-state solution became a global goal only when it was no longer viable; that U.S. officials preferred technical schemes to a frank reckoning with the past; that Hamas’s onslaught [on Oct 7, 2023] and Israel’s war of destruction were not historical exceptions but historical reenactments; and that the gaps separating Israelis and Palestinians have less to do with territorial allocation than with history and emotions.” From Amazon Books website.

Robert Malley was the United State Special Envoy for Iran in 2021-23 and as Special Assistant to President Clinton from 1998 to 2001, he was a member of the U.S. peace team and helped organize the 2000 Camp David Summit. Hussein Agha, a Lebanese, is a senior associate of Oxford University’s St. Antony’s College was a senior associate fellow at Chatham House.

Malley and Agha stress the diversity of players in the search for peace—ultra orthodox to nonreligious Jews—Palestinian groups that spent more energy fighting one another than fighting Jews. Selecting Israeli prime minister Ehud Barak and Palestinian Authority chairman Yasser Arafat for US lead negotiations at the Camp David summit left out most groups and many relevant issues. The authors end with the somewhat encouraging call to return to the beginning (1948 and before) and seating all Jewish and Palestinian groups at the table to take on the fundamental issues of history head on if there is any chance of finding the compromises needed to live together in peace with one, two, or more states as options.  https://wcoats.blog/2024/01/19/one-state-solution-for-palestine-israel/   Their narrative is a very enlightening account. 

My Blogs

From the time I could vote (1964) I have indevoured to evaluate each president’s policies on their merits (as seem by me of course). Thus, at one time or another I have praised or criticize policies of LBJ, Richard Nixon, Gerald Ford, Jimmy Carter, Ronald Reagan (my favorite president), George H.W. Bush, Bill Clinton, George W Bush, Barack Obama, Joe Biden, and Donald Trump. I often condemned a policy but not the President promoting it, in the belief that each President thought his policy was for the welfare of our country even if I disagreed. The exception is Donald Trump. 

Unique in my lifetime, we have a President whose primary interest is in seeing his name on things (Kennedy Center, Peace Institute, maybe Dulles Airport), filling the White House with gold to look like a palace, being praised by strong men (Putin, Orban, Mohammed bin Salman), dropping bombs where ever he chooses (having given up begging for the Nobel Peace Prize) and throwing his weight around (bullying), irrespective of the considerable damaging he is doing to our country. Now he wants his name on US currency (not to mention his likeness on gold coins).

Since 1861 the US treasurer’s signature has appeared on bank notes, along with the likeness of a deceased President.  In 1866, Congress passed what is commonly called the Thayer Amendment, which forbids the likeness of any living person from appearing on U.S. securities and currency. “Donald Trump is set to become the first sitting US president to have his signature on US banknotes, the treasury department has announced…. Trump’s signature will appear alongside Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, an unprecedented move that the department said would mark America’s 250th anniversary…. The first $100 bills with the signatures of Trump and Bessent will be printed in June, with others to follow.  Notes currently being printed bear the signatures of former President Joe Biden’s Treasury Secretary, Janet Yellen, and Treasurer Lynn Malerba.” Just in case you didn’t know that we have a Treasurer in addition to the Secretary of the Treasury https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cz0el909yp3o  

Trump is an egoist with the tastes and desires of a spoiled child. Unfortunately, as President of the United States his childish behavior is doing great damage to the U.S. and global order.

America Alone

Donald Trump campaigned on a pledge to end “forever wars” and to put American interests first. In office, he has done the opposite.

In the first year of his second term Trump has bombed seven countries and 50 speed boats killing 159 people. His joint war with Israel on Iran is threatening global recession. None of these were authorized by the American Congress as required by our Constitution and violate international law as well. He has threated one an all even more freely (e.g. Canada, Greenland).

If this were not bad enough, Trump has insulted and alienated our friends and allies resulting in the refusal of most EU and Nato countries (Germany, France, UK, Spain, Italy) and Australia and Japan to agree to Trump’s plea for help in defending the Staits of Hormuz.

These measures have isolated and weakened the U.S.  Trump’s policies have not put America First–they have made a weakened America Alone.

Deploying his bully substitute for diplomacy, Trump, with help from JD Vance, Trump accused the EU of “extraterritorial censorship of Americans” through EU content‑moderation and hate‑speech rules. At the Munich Security Conference in February 2025, Vance warned that “across Europe, free speech…is in retreat,” This is from the same administration that repeatedly labeled critical media “fake news” and “the enemy of the people.” Currently he and senior officials have accused outlets critical of his Middle East war policy of undermining the country, with allies at the media regulator warning that broadcasters risked losing licenses if they spread “fake news.”

Condemning the opposition as enemies rather than challenging the policies of opponents is a sign of weakness and typical of tyrants. Trump attacks his domestic enemies as fiercely as foreign ones. Note the childish hate in Trump’s tweet today about the death of the man who investigated his misbehavior at the bottom of this blog:

The administration has backed or initiated high‑dollar defamation lawsuits against critical outlets (for example, a multibillion‑dollar suit against the Wall Street Journal). The Department of Justice has revived policies to subpoena reporters’ phone records to identify leakers, and Homeland Security officials have publicly boasted about catching sources for journalists—moves described by the Committee to Protect Journalists as “terrifying” and chilling to newsgathering.

The White House has at times revoked or restricted press credentials for reporters and outlets seen as adversarial, most famously CNN’s Jim Acosta. New, more restrictive rules for White House press passes have been criticized as targeting critical journalists and limiting independent coverage.

The unfunny clown who heads our Department of War has driving away most honest reporters by require department review of their prospective reports. A federal district court in Washington, D.C., just struck down key parts of the Pentagon’s new press-access and reporting restrictions. In a suit brought by The New York Times challenging the Defense Department’s 2025 press policy the judge ruled that the Pentagon’s policy limiting reporters’ access and conditioning accreditation on pledges not to gather or publish information without official approval violated the First Amendment and also raised due process concerns under the Fifth Amendment.

We have historically relied on the strength of our constitution and the separation of powers it establishes between the three major branches of government to contain abuses of government power. Generally, our institutions have served us well. But Trump has stretched executive power weakened its guardrails, for example by firing all Inspector Generals and failing to seek congressional support.

Trump and his repulsive advisor Stephen Miller’s immigration/deportation policies via the masked ICE agents who have killed two American citizens on public streets, have unleashed terror and abuse of power never seen in my life time. Last year 32 people died in ICE custody and in just the first weeks of 2026, at least 6 more people died in ICE detention.

The list goes on and on. From his reelection to his second term (2024) to early 2026, Trump’s estimated wealth has increased on the order of 2–4 billion dollars. Forbes reported his net worth at about 7.3 billion dollars by September 2025, calling it the most lucrative year of his career. In the realm of pure childish ego, he has added his name to the Kennedy Center now to be closed in two months, and the Institute of Peace, rebuilding the White House, and threatening to rename Dulles Airport. On top of that he wants his image on a gold coin. His administration proposing both a commemorative gold coin and a circulating $1 coin.

None of these are serving America’s interests.  Various indices of freedom/authoritarianism report a steep decline by the U.S.  Freedom House, which scores countries (0–100) on political rights and civil liberties and categorizes them as Free, Partly Free, or Not Free reports that the U.S. score is now at its lowest level since they adopted the 100‑point scale, while still rated “Free.”   The democracy watchdog, Martin Gelin reports that “Trump is aiming for dictatorship”. But we can still stop him if we wake up and yell STOP.

Kurdistan

Though large numbers of Jews were scattered around the world for two thousand years, Palestine has always retained a significant number of them. Of the almost 11.3 million Jews in 1900, most were in Europe (9 million), Russia (3.9 million) and the United States (1.5 million). At the beginning of the WWII the global population of Jews had grown to 15.4 million of which one third were in the US.

Even before the holocaust there were movements to reestablish a Jewish homeland in Palestine. The 1917 Belfour Declaration from British Foreign Secretary Arthur Balfour to Lord Walter Rothschild, pledged British support for a “national home for the Jewish people” in Palestine. The local Christian and Muslim community of Palestine, who constituted almost 90% of the population, strongly opposed the declaration.

What became known as Zionism (as formalized by Theodor Herzl, it aimed to secure a safe haven for Jews fleeing persecution and to revive Jewish culture and language) took many forms. For example, the question who is Jewish continues to be debated. Following World War I, Britian ruled the Lavant (Palestine). On September 3, 1947, the UN adopted the boundaries (green line) to divide the British mandate between a state of Israel and the rest. Israel was given 56% and Jerusalem (an important Christian, Jewish, and Muslim shrine) was made international. When Britten ended its Mandate, Israel declared its independence.

Most Zionists sought a democratic Jewish state. Upon its founding in 1947, Israel was roughly 60% Muslim, 40% Jewish and 10% Christian. That was an unacceptable problem for those wanting a democratic Jewish state. From the Nakba of 1948 (Jewish ethnic cleaning of over half of the Palestinians then living in Israel) Israel was about 90% Jewish in 1949. Currently the population of Israel is about 10 million, of which 73% are Jewish, and 20% are Muslims. Finding peace with the rest of Palestine has remained a challenge to this day. Are the prospects for a peaceful Kurdistan very different.

The Kurdish population worldwide is estimated to be between 40 and 45 million, making them one of the largest ethnic groups without a sovereign state. However, about 30 million of them live within what would be the sovereign state of Kurdistan should it be allowed to exist, made up of chunks of Turkey, Iraq, Iran and Syria.

Kurdish military forces have fought for territory but largely in pursuit of claims to rule what they considered home ground. It is extremely unlikely that the Kurds in this area would have any interest in expanding their territory. None the less Iraq, Iran, Syria and Turkey have generally been hostile to any effort of the Kurds to rule themselves. The formation of a Kurdistan raises the questions whether that would bring greater peace to the wider region and whether the “internal” politics would support domestic rule that would properly serve the Kurdish people (or all residents of the area). Intense opposing political views exist within Kurdistan, particularly in Iraq, where the Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) and the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK) compete for control, often leading to governance deadlocks, separate security forces, and split zones of control.

In addition, we must ask whether the Iraqi Kurds, Iranian Kurds, Turkish Kurds, and Syrian Kurds feel more loyal to the country they are located in or to their fellow Kurds in the surrounding countries. Does a nation function better toward the interests of its citizens when based on ethnic and/or religious commonality or when based on common principals of governance and rights?

Israel is an example of the first option—Jewishness. As a classical liberal (libertarian) I support the American approach of rights and laws applied equally without regard to ethnicity or personal religious beliefs. For Kurdistan, the question with whether the Kurds of Turkey, Iraq, Iran or Syria feel greater loyalty to other Kurds or to the country they live in.

I started this blog expecting to build the case for a Kurdistan. I have talked myself out of it.