Month: April 2023

Reducing CHIP Supply Risks

When semiconductors where invented in the U.S. in the late 1950 and began to replace vacuum tubes in electronic circuits, the world of electronic circuitry changed dramatically forever (from the computer I am composing this note on, to the mobile phone on which I might discuss it with you or the electronics in the car I might drive to meet you while listening to the radio these chips made possible, not to mention of submarines, planes, and satellites they empower).

American companies continue to lead the world in the design of the most sophisticate chips and semiconductor circuits. However, they have increasingly found it more economical to outsource their manufacture to facilities in foreign countries. Almost all the most sophisticated chips (still designed in the US) are now produced in Taiwan by TSMC, which produces about 56% of world output of semiconductors.  Especially given the increasing suggestion, even by the President of the United States, that the U.S. might renounce its acceptance of China’s claim to Taiwan, such reliance on TSMC for our most advanced chips is an economic and security risk we should reduce.

What is the best way to reduce the risk of our heavy dependance on Taiwan’s supply of such Chips? The rest of this note briefly compares the market approach with the government (socialist/industrial planning) approach to reducing that risk.

American and other firms concentrated the manufacturing of the chips they designed and/or needed where it was cheapest to produce (and deliver) them. Where China violated the WTO rules of fair trade via state subsidies, importing countries are allowed by WTO rules to impose tariffs at levels designed to neutralize such artificial advantages. WTO rules also allow the use of tariffs to diminish the risk to national security of dependance on foreign supplies.

The opposite approach is for a government to subsidize the otherwise uneconomical manufacture of semiconductors (or whatever) in their own country.  In the U.S., the CHIPS and Science Act of 2022 appropriated $280 billion in part to subsidize factories to produce such chips in the U.S. Why was so much needed to get firms to produce chips in the U.S.? “’It’s much cheaper to build the chips and the factories in Taiwan than it is in the United States,’ former Google CEO Eric Schmidt told Semafor. ‘Similarly, the workforce quality is not as good as it is in Taiwan.’” “Chip war-US-Taiwan”

The Biden administration’s industrial policy approach suffers all the well-known disadvantages of industrial policy. First, like China’s subsidies, it violates WTO trading rules, which the U.S. seems all too willing to do when it is the violator rather than someone else. Second, it, rather than market factors, must decide who gets the subsidies (and tax breaks), either by establishing the rules for access or by outright picking winners. Governments’ records at picking winners, especially picking technologies, have historically been poor compared with the search for profit by entrepreneurs, most of whom fail and quietly fade away without further cost or waste. Third, when governments pick winners, they establish an economic incentive for corruption by those seeking to be “picked”. Governments, like everyone else, tend to bend to such temptations.

Rather than paying hundreds of billions of American taxpayer’s money for more costly Made in American products, imposing tariffs on imported chips sufficient to reflect the existing sole source risk would leave it to the market to find the best alternative and more diversified sources (India, Korea, Japan, Viet Nam, etc.). The full cost of lower living standards from industrial policies will only be felt in the longer run. “The slippery slope”

The same economic forces and arguments apply to slowing or preventing further global warming. A carbon tax reflecting the global warming externality of carbon producing activities leaves to the market the search for the best technologies for reducing carbon emissions without loss or with minimal loss of output.

The Slippery Slope

Beyond defining and protecting property rights, most governments dip into the private market for one reason or another (e.g., national defense) to some extent.  In doing so, they reward (e.g., subsidize) or penalize (e.g., tax) specific firms and/or industries. These firms have a MUCH stronger incentive to protect their interests than do the general public with regard to these activities. As a result of this asymmetry, firms spend more (fight harder) to protect their privileges than do the general public to protect a fair and competitive marketplace. As a result of these incentives, government privileges tend to grow over time and are hard to reverse. Governments keep getting bigger and bigger. Worse yet, if taxes do not match these increases in government costs, i.e., if the government borrows to finance them, these asymmetric incentives are even stronger.

These realities are now being confronted by the Republican Party as it attempts to agree on which government budget items to cut in order to reduce the fiscal deficit without raising taxes. As Steve Clemons reported in this morning’s Semafor Principles: “When Speaker Kevin McCarthy only has four votes of wiggle room in passing GOP legislation, the corn caucus can be as powerful as the Freedom Caucus. After a proposed repeal of biofuels subsidies prompted a rebellion by Midwestern lawmakers, leadership is making changes to a bill they presented as non-negotiable”

The Chips Act of 2022 provides an even costlier example that will be almost impossible to get rid of. The Act provides $52 billion in manufacturing grants and research investments and establishes a 25% investment tax credit to incentivize semiconductor manufacturing in the U.S.”  It makes financially attractive what was on its own an inefficient and costlier way to acquire these produces than buying them abroad. It makes us poorer as do other “Buy American” requirements.

Especially now with a labor shortage (we should increase legal immigration), moving workers to subsidized areas means taking them away from producing what the market found more profitable. It reduces overall output and our standard of living. If we insist on producing our own tanks and airplanes for national security reasons, that is a cost we should probably bare.  But for 5G phone service, Tik Toc, steel from Canada, or whatever???? Tell your congressman to stop subsidizing these special interests. And if they are really justified by national security, pay the cost properly with tax revenue.

Buy American

In recent years the U.S. government has become more protectionist (protecting its domestic firms from foreign competition). Last year it even provided billions of dollars to subsidize chip production and other designated products in the U.S., an example of industrial policy (state directed development). The CHIPS Act passed last year will shell out over $200 billion over the next five years to subsidize domestic chip production.

To add insult to injury, the so called “Inflation Reduction Act” may violate World Trade Organization rules: “We have concerns about a number of discriminatory elements in this Inflation Reduction Act which puts requirement for local content, for local production,” Dombrovskis, who also is a European Commission vice president, told Bloomberg in Prague.” EU Is Assessing If US Inflation Act in Breach of WTO Rules – Bloomberg Did we really think that we could cheat and Europe and the rest of the world would just roll over and play dead.

President Biden has proclaimed that these expensive policies are needed to create jobs in American. This is bazar given that we are currently suffering from a labor shortage.  Manufacturing output in the U.S. is at an all-time high. U.S. employment in manufacturing has gradually declined in recent decades because our workers have become more productive. But that is surely a good thing, resulting in an increase in our standard of living. President Biden has taken steps to lower our standard of living in order to create American job. Take a deep breath. If we don’t significantly increase legal immigration, you can count on the continuation of long waits on the phone to talk to a real service person.

Where does the “Buy American” impulse come from? It seems that some people see American nationalism as keeping everything at home whatever the cost, while I see it as enjoying the fruits of our largely free society to work and innovate and flourish as we each see fit for the benefit of all.

Several years ago, Ito and I celebrated the 4th of July at the American Embassy in Roma at the invitation of our friend David Zimov, at that time Counselor for Economic Affairs at the U.S. Embassy in Rome. It was really a fun event overflowing with hot dogs and hamburgers. While listening to the Marine Band and waving the little American flags we were all given, I noticed that the flag had been Made in China (clearly tagged). I am guessing that the American nationalists I referred to above were appalled. I, on the other hand, was grateful that my tax dollars were being spent as carefully and wisely as possible—on this occasion at least.  https://wcoats.blog/2023/01/22/trade-once-again/