Standard time

I paid a lot for my Rado watch. It is the most beautiful watch I have ever seen in its simple design—quite the opposite of the Gaudy Rolex. Sadly, Rado no longer makes this model. Its only disadvantage was that it was hard to set and adjust. For some years I took it to the local watch repair shop to change its setting from standard to daylight savings time or visa versa. A few years ago, I just stop adjusting it and let it be an hour off half of the year.

The time on my watch has nothing to do with when I wake up in the morning, which is governed by the sun, so I sleep less in the summer than in the winter (like bears, I guess). I am happy to report that today my watch again matches the time on my other clocks. Why in the world can’t we get rid of this silly and annoying practice of changing the clock back and forth?

It doesn’t matter to me whether we freeze the clock on standard time or daylight saving time but the medical profession says that waking to sun light is strongly preferred. The Washington Post explains why in an article titled: “Why daylight saving time should be eliminated entirely” https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2026/10/31/daylight-saving-time-is-bad-your-health-here-better-option/ President Trump also supports ending the switches back and forth but choses the wrong one. “The president still wants permanent daylight saving time. His bill could force an awkward clock change this winter.” https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2026/11/01/trump-backed-daylight-saving-time-bill-could-create-midwinter-time-jump/

One way or the other I hope we can stop the switching.

Econ 101: The industrial revolution

Average income in the world changed little for millennia until the industrial revolution, which began in England around 1760. While world average GDP per person (in 2011 US dollars) was unchanged from $1,200 in the time of Jesus until a thousand years later, it rose to $1,700 by 1800 and roughly doubled to $3,300 by 1900. The most recent figure (end of 2022) is an astounding $16,677 (also in 2011 dollars).  What happened?

As governments became able to protect individual property rights, thus providing an incentive to develop and adopt tools that increased each worker’s output, investments in such innovations began to grow. Deirdre McCloskey argues that the broader acceptance of the ideas of liberty and dignity for ordinary people was also critical. But from the beginning of the creation of tools that enhance an individual’s output, there was pushback.

“William Lee (1563–1614) was an English inventor and alleged clergyman who invented the stocking frame knitting machine. Framework knitting, as the use of Lee’s machine in stocking production was called, was the first major stage in the mechanization of the textile industry, a process that 200 years later precipitated the Industrial Revolution.” https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/William_Lee_(inventor)

But twice Lee was denied a patent on his invention by Queen Elizabeth I. She stated that she had “too much love for my poor people” who earned their bread by hand knitting to grant a monopoly that would ruin their employment. James I also refused him after Elizabeth’s death, so Lee moved with his workers and machines to France under the patronage of Henry IV, who did grant him privileges. Henry’s assassination in 1610 destroyed his support, and Lee died in Paris in poverty around 1614.

New technologies that increase the output of individual workers obviously mean that fewer workers are needed to produce the same output. But what are the implications of that? The same number of workers can now produce more of what they were producing, increasing overall output, or (some of them) will be freed up to produce other (perhaps new) things. One way or the other such improvements in productivity will increase overall wealth.

New technologies thus require some adjustments. Some workers are likely to need to retrain for new tasks. In addition, the most productive uses of new tools will need to be determined. Consider the hammer. Hitting someone on the head is bad but hitting a nail is good. These challenges have been faced over and over with each new technology and our incomes have grown as a result.

The latest technology is AI. The challenges posed are significantly larger. The potential benefits and risks are significantly larger. But the story is basically the same. The workers freed from their existing tasks must move on to new ones and we must learn how best to protect against the risks posed. Identifying what is real and what is AI/fake will be an important challenge. But we will again rise to the challenges and become still richer.

Congress woman Ilhan Omar

Is Rep Ilhan Omar a good representative or a bad one? A good person or a bad one? I have no idea and as she is not representing me, I will not take the time to dig into those questions more deeply.

I do know, however, that I no longer trust the honesty and integrity of our Justice Department, FBI, or in this case Homeland Security Investigations. Trump is using these agencies to punish “his enemies” in the press, law firms or wherever. In addition to replacing senior military officials who might oppose unlawful and/or corrupt actions by Trump, the President has removed the Inspector Generals meant to keep an eye on things across the executive branch and did I mention that FBI director Kash Patel remains in place despite all.

“The search of Omar’s home appears to be the type of action that law enforcement officials have typically avoided so close to an election in the past. Omar is up for reelection in November after winning the Democratic primary in her district.

“In the 60 days before an election, the Justice Department enters a “blackout” period, during which the department typically refrains from taking public steps in politically related cases.”   washingtonpost.com/2026/10/12/federal-agents-search-rep-ilhan-omars-dc-home

How worried should we be? If/when the Republicans “potentially” lose control of congress after the November elections and following Trump’s “orders” refuse to seat the real democrat winners. Who will come forth to prevent Trump’s coup?

Our First Amendment Freedom of Speech

President Trump seems to disregard our constitution generally but his attack on its guarantee of our freedom of speech is particularly dangerous. Its importance to our freedoms and democratic governance is so well-known and obvious that I will not bother to defend it. Trump has increasingly utilized his executive power and the administrative apparatus to target, penalize, or attempt to silence his critics, political opponents, and media organizations.

Through executive orders, directives, and appointees, the administration has ordered investigations into political adversaries and former officials who publicly criticized him. This includes directive-backed investigations targeting former government security officials like Chris Krebs (who contradicted election fraud claims) and first-term Trump official Miles Taylor.

Trump has repeatedly stripped high-ranking former officials and critics—such as former CIA Director John Brennan and former FBI Director James Comey—of their security clearances, access to classified briefings, or government protection details after they issued public criticism. The Department of Justice is pursuing criminal prosecutions against former FBI Director James Comey on trumped up (no pun intended, maybe) charges.

Executive actions have targeted non-profit think tanks, advocacy groups, and legal firms that represented positions adverse to the administration or published critical reports, including threats to target their tax-exempt statuses or initiate government reviews.

In an excellent and damning critique of Trump’s use of executive power to silence his critics Walter Olsen reported that “Donald Trump says he’s going to sue a private think tank over a report criticizing his policies. The report, from the left-leaning Center for American Progress, enraged him by arguing that his decision to deploy the National Guard in Washington, D.C. doesn’t really deserve credit for the city’s drop in violent crime rates since then because rates had been falling steeply before he acted.”  https://www.facebook.com/share/p/191KXwjiEJ/

Executive agencies have been leveraged to exert pressure on disfavored press. Measures have included revoking White House press credentials for journalists and news outlets covering the administration critically, threatening the regulatory status or FCC licenses of major broadcast networks, and directing federal agencies to limit media access.

Secretary of Defense Hegseth (after some thought and a glass of wine I have decided not to use any of the adjectives that I think apply to him) has largely shut down a free press in his department.  When he issued directives requiring journalists to obtain official approval before publishing military information—even unclassified details—and prohibiting unapproved gathering of information, most journalists walked out and took legal action. Dozens of major news outlets across the political spectrum—including The New York Times, Associated Press, Reuters, CNN, NBC, CBS, ABC, and Fox News—refused to sign the pledge. Media organizations issued joint statements condemning the directive as an unconstitutional attempt at prior restraint and an assault on First Amendment press freedoms.

Media organizations challenged the policy in court (New York Times v. Department of Defense). In March 2026, a federal district judge ruled that the DOD rules amounted to unconstitutional viewpoint discrimination and censorship, ordering the restoration of press credentials for journalists who refused to sign.

More recently “the longtime publisher of Stars and Stripes announced he’s stepping down weeks after the Pentagon installed an active-duty Navy captain at the military newspaper, an atypical appointment that staffers, board members and Democratic lawmakers say risks further eroding the publication’s independence from the government.” https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2026/08/20/democrats-sound-alarm-about-new-leader-uniform-stars-stripes/

Step by step the direction Trump is taking the country remains clear.

Econ 101: Profits

Is it a bad thing for oil company profits to increase when oil prices jump?

A country’s economic wellbeing—its national income and standard of living—is maximized when its economic resources (capital and labor) are allocated to their most profitable uses. When that is the case, no other use of capital and labor can increase the value of total output. This includes goods produced for export in order to pay for goods and services imported.

An economy that has maximized its output in this way (allocated all its resources to their most productive uses), will suffer a drop in income if a tax causes a change in this resource allocation. As an example, consider a tax (called a tariff) on the importation of certain medicines now produced abroad. In fact, President Trump is threatening a 100% tariff on imported generic drugs, with the rate rising to 200% later, if manufacturers do not move production to the U.S. Hopefully it is obvious that if the existing allocation of resources between products and whether they are produced here or there is optimal (maximizing output), then shifting the production of the drugs now produced in India (for example) to the U.S. will result in a fall in our aggregate income. The resources devoted to producing what ever we exported (to pay for our drug imports) would have to be shifted to domestic production of the drugs now imported. We will lose the comparative advantage of the existing allocation. The reallocation will reduce overall output. In short, if the allocation was optimal to begin with, the tariff and reallocation will reduce aggregate income. It is a bad idea.

But what about the jump in oil company profits because of the Iran war induced increase in the price of oil?  When resources are optimally allocated, risk-adjusted profits will be the same everywhere because resources will be moved to where profits are higher (thus lowering them) until they are the same everywhere (risk-adjusted). Oil prices have increased because of the war-related fall in the supply of crude oil. Nothing has changed in the cost of lifting and supplying existing non-war-related supplies of crude. In the real world, of course all kinds of things are changing all the time and it is very desirable for resource allocations to change as well in response. That is precisely what chasing profits does.

The increase in profits from producing the same amount crude in the U.S. from the increase in the world price of oil, creates a profit incentive to allocate more resources to finding and pumping it up. That is very desirable for easing the current supply shortage. An increase in profit is a market incentive to increase the resources devoted to producing something. It would be counterproductive to interfere with that very desirable response.

Foreign Students

The Trump administration finalized a major rule to tighten student visas by ending the “duration of status” policy and imposing a fixed four-year maximum admission cap. https://www.dhs.gov/news/2026/07/16/trump-administration-issues-final-rule-end-foreign-student-visa-abuse   Why? Foreign students benefit the U.S. in a number of ways and we should seek to increase their number.

First: hosting foreign students is an export, it pays foreign money into the U.S. via tuition, room and board and other purchases these students make in the U.S.. The inflow of foreign exchange helps provide us with the means for paying for what we import from abroad. https://wcoats.blog/2025/11/04/trade/

Second: Foreign students gain firsthand experience of life in the U.S., often making lifelong friends. They take this knowledge home improving American relations with other countries. American student benefit from meeting and befriending the foreign students, thus broadening their knowledge of other cultures.

Third: When foreign students decide to remain in the U.S. we benefit from their knowledge and expertise increasing American income and wealth.

According to annual economic impact data calculated by NAFSA: Association of International Educators, foreign students spent and contributed $43.8 billion and supported approximately 378,000 jobs in the U.S. in the 2023–2024 Academic Year. This fell 2% during the next year, which was the first year of the current Trump administration.

We would do much better to deport Stephen Miller.

Tariffs again

“Mr. Trump said that generic-drug manufacturers must move production to America or their products will face a 100% tariff from August 2028. A 200% levy would follow from August 2029.” 

All economists and hopefully you as well understand that your standard of living (income) is higher (much higher) because you can specialize in what you are best at and trade for the rest (exploiting “comparative advantage”). If you had to be totally self-sufficient you would be dirt poor.

Unfortunately, Stephen Miller and Donald Trump don’t understand this or is it just that Trump gets such a kick out of throwing his weight around that he doesn’t care??

Obeying the rules is in our interest

The U.S. Department of Justice indicted former Cuban President Raúl Castro for his alleged role in the 1996 Cuban military downing of two civilian planes operated by the exile group Brothers to the Rescue, which killed four people (including three U.S. citizens).Since September 2, 2025, the U.S. military has attacked suspected drug boats in the Caribbean and the Eastern Pacific 59 times, killing 196 people. Shouldn’t we be indicting Secretary of War, Pete Hegseth, for murder?

“According to President Donald Trump’s mysterious math, that means this campaign of carnage has prevented around 1.5 million drug-related deaths in the United States—more than 20 times the total number recorded in the year before Trump started treating suspected cocaine smugglers as ‘combatants’ who can be killed at will, from a distance and in cold blood.

“Back on planet Earth, there is no reason to think the boat strikes have prevented any deaths at all. That could only happen if blowing up smugglers—as opposed to the previous practice of intercepting them, arresting them, and seizing their cargo, which Trump says was ‘totally ineffective’—reduced the supply of cocaine available to American consumers. Given more than a century of failed attempts to ‘stop the flow’ of illegal intoxicants, that never seemed likely. And nearly nine months after Trump launched his new, deadlier version of the war on drugs, there is no evidence that it is more effective than the traditional tactics he derides as insufficiently homicidal.” Jacob Sullum, “Blowing up boats hasn’t slowed cocaine traffic to U.S.”

Should we care about such a double standard? Yes. What we are doing is not only illegal but also immoral. Hopefully we aspire to behave morally because we aspire to be moral people. But there is a practical self-interest in playing by the rules as well.

We could often get our way simply because we are the strongest guy on the block. President Trump seems to like being a bully. However, pushing others around has a cost. The better we can live up to the high principles upon which our nation was founded, the more respect we will receive from others (nations and people). One of those important principles is adhering to the rule of law. Such respect means that others will cooperate with us more easily (at lower cost to us).

International norms and conventions generally serve the interests of all who have agreed to them. Win, win. When we violate them, the world pays a cost and so do we.

Abraham Lincoln

Last night we finished the three-episode 2022 History Channel mini-series on Abraham Lincoln. Thank you Jim Bailey for recommending it. In addition to the character acting, the story was narrated by Barack Obama: (former U.S. President); Catherine Clinton (Historian); Christy S. Coleman (Historical Consultant); Allen C. Guelzo (Lincoln Scholar); Harold Holzer (Lincoln Scholar); Caroline Janney (Civil War Historian); Edna Greene Medford (Historian); General Stanley A. McChrystal (Retired U.S. Army General).

There was so much about Lincoln and his struggles and wisdom in reuniting the American union that I had not known. That history was masterfully presented in this series. Most Southern states seceded from the Union in 1861 to preserve their right to own slaves. To reunite the union Lincoln launched a war with the south that eventually killed 620,000 to 700,000 American’s. In the midst of this war Lincoln issued the Emancipation Proclamation which declared that all enslaved people in Confederate states still in rebellion against the Union “shall be then, thenceforward, and forever free”.

When Robert E Lee surrendered his troops, thus ending the war, Lincoln allowed  members of the Confederate Army to return home and to their farms without punishment. In today’s environment it is hard to imagine such generous treatment of one’s enemies. But Lincoln had the wisdom, integrity, and kindness of heart to understand that reuniting the union required mutual acceptance of one’s previous enemies.

Lincoln’s tragic assassination by John Wilkes Booth shortly after his re-election deprived the South of his wisdom during the Reconstruction period that followed the war.

SCOTUS – Louisiana v. Callais

“The Supreme Court’s invalidation of Louisiana’s congressional map has triggered a swirling debate about just how fundamentally the justices altered the Voting Rights Act landscape.” This and following quotes are from The Hill article: the hill – regulating voting-rights-act-supreme-court – SCOTUS-Decision  

The court’s ruling in Louisiana v. Callais was adopted by 6 – 3 of the judges.

I am quite amazed how dramatically differently some people have characterized the decision’s result.

“Section 2 of the Voting Rights Act of 1965 [as Amended in 1982] has enabled groups to force states to draw additional majority-minority districts for decades,” despite the 15th Amendment to US constitution in 1870, which prohibited the federal and state governments from denying a citizen the right to vote based on that citizen’s “race, color, or previous condition of servitude”, effectively protecting the voting rights of Blacks.

Section 2 “bars voting maps that give a racial minority ‘less opportunity than other members of the electorate’ to elect their preferred candidate.”

In Thornburg v. Gingles (1986), the Supreme Court ruled that multi-member legislative districts in North Carolina violated Section 2 of the Voting Rights Act by diluting Black voting power. The landmark ruling established a critical three-part legal test to determine if an electoral map illegally discriminates against minority voters.

To prove a violation of Section 2, plaintiffs must satisfy the following three preconditions:

  1. Numerosity and Compactness: The minority group must be sufficiently large and geographically compact to constitute a voting majority in a single-member district.
  2. Political Cohesion: The minority group must show that it is politically cohesive, meaning they largely vote for the same candidates.
  3. Majority Bloc Voting: The plaintiffs must prove that the white majority votes sufficiently as a bloc to usually defeat the minority group’s preferred candidates

After Thornburg v. Gingles, plaintiffs could prove vote dilution by showing that a minority group was large and compact enough to form a majority in a reasonably drawn district, was politically cohesive, and faced bloc voting by the majority that usually defeated its preferred candidates.

That framework gave civil-rights groups a litigation template: draw an “illustrative” majority-minority district, show polarized voting, and argue that the state had cracked or packed minority voters so they could not elect their preferred candidate. If they won their case, the remedy often required the state to create an additional majority-minority district, even though Section 2 formally says it does not create a right to proportional representation.

In its recent Louisiana v. Callais ruling the Court held that Louisiana’s second majority-Black congressional district was an unconstitutional racial gerrymander and that Section 2 did not require Louisiana to draw it. The Court majority said that Voting Rights Act compliance can be a compelling interest only when Section 2 is properly construed, and it tightened the Gingles test by requiring race-neutral illustrative maps, closer adherence to state districting goals such as compactness, incumbency protection, and partisan objectives, and evidence separating racial bloc voting from ordinary partisan voting.

The practical effect is that plaintiffs can no longer easily say, “Here is a compact majority-minority district; therefore, the state must draw it.” After Callais, they must show that the alternative map satisfies the state’s nonracial redistricting criteria, that the voting polarization is racial rather than merely partisan, and that the totality of circumstances points to present-day legally relevant discrimination rather than mainly historical disadvantage.

A “majority-minority district” is one in which a racial minority (blacks, Asian, Hispanics, etc.) constitute a majority of the voters. The presumption seems to be that, for example, only (or mostly) blacks will vote for a black candidate. That is clearly a racist view. Barack Obama, for example, was elected President of the United States by a majority of white voters.

I am really shocked at how overtly racist the opposition to the court’s decision is. “’Unfortunately, we are talking about rolling back to an era of Jim Crow, and I don’t believe I’m overstating that,’ Sophia Lin Lakin, director of the American Civil Liberties Union’s voting rights project, But Jim Crow laws were used to segregate blacks and whites. Majority-minority districts move in the same direction. The court’s weakening of the arguments for such districts is the opposite of a Jim Crow law. Voters are motivated by many things, but I have more confidence than does Ms. Lakin in voters choosing the candidate they think best and most effectively supports the policies they support, whether the voter is black, white, or yellow whatever the color of the candidate.

“House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.) said the law was ‘largely gone,’ telling reporters the decision was ‘designed to undermine the ability of communities of color all across this country to elect their candidate of choice.’” Good grief.

Here is an excellent discussion of this issue: “The supreme court’s vote ruling empowers minorities”