Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is wrong in every way (legally, morally, strategically). Ukraine’s fight to defend its sovereignty is heroic, brave, and impressive. The U.S. is supporting Ukraine to the last Ukrainian soldier. But there are a limited number of potential Ukrainian fighters left and causalities are high.
The fighting can end when: a) Russia kills or disables Ukraine’s remaining soldiers and puts a Russian friendly President in Kyiv; b) the West (NATO) provides soldiers to support the Ukrainian Army perilously launching WWIII; c) The advice offered in the letter to President Biden from 30 congressional members of the Congressional Progressive Caucus to press Zelensky and Putin to negotiate leads to a truce and end to the fighting. “CPC letter for diplomacy on Russia-Ukraine conflict” However, the letter was later withdrawn (perhaps because the signers now foolishly believe that Ukraine can defeat Russia). “Obama already said some of what the Progressive Caucus got slammed for about Ukraine”
Of Ukraine’s total population of almost 44 million, all of fighting age and condition are on the battle fields and their numbers are shrinking every day. Of its total standing military of about 200,000 when the war began, 70,000 to 80,000 have already been killed or wounded. Another approximately 300,000 have since joined the fight. “Ukraine-Russia military comparison” “Russia-Ukraine crisis-how big is the Ukraine army size compared to Russia’s”
Of Russia’s total population of a bit over 143 million (three times that of Ukraine), almost one million are in the military. Putin sent an estimated 190,000 into Ukraine this year. Half of them have been killed or wounded. However, unlike Ukraine, which is already all in with virtually no more potential fighters to draw on, Russia plans to send in an additional 135,000 soldiers before Spring and has 800,000 military personnel stationed elsewhere to draw on. “Putin could cripple Ukraine without using nukes”
Ukraine cannot win this war without additional soldiers from the West. “David Petraeus’s recent suggestion that Washington and its allies may want to intervene in the ongoing conflict between Moscow and Kiev. According to Petraeus, the military action he advocates would not be a NATO intervention, but ‘a multinational force led by the US and not as a NATO force.’” “Playing at war in Ukraine” Just think about that for a second. Whether the resulting WWIII would be nuclear or not is an open question.
I don’t want to see Ukraine lose and I don’t want to see the start of WWIII that my children and grandchildren will hopefully survive to clean up. It was a terrible mistake for us to break our promise not to expand NATO East in the early 1990s. It was a terrible mistake for us not to insist that Ukraine honor its commitments under the Minsk agreements in2014 and 2015. It was a terrible mistake to finally (2016) build the missile launch sites in Poland and Romania first announced in 2009. It was a terrible mistake for us not to press Ukraine and Russia to negotiate their semi sensible offers the first quarter of this year. I am not sure how many more mistakes we can get away with — if any.
2 thoughts on “Ukraine War—How does it end?”
The path I see to peace is the promise of rebuilding of Ukraine and assisting Russia to make items the rest of the world might buy as opposed to just exporting raw materials. In both countries, so much talent has gone to waste.
Even though Ukraine has a smaller country land mass than Russia, it seems to have a vibrancy that Russia lacks. History of the future will show that by helping Ukraine defeat Russia under Putin will also help Russia as the Ukrine when it can afford to be magnanimous to a defeated Russia will influence Russian society. This I think will happen as technology helps to redistribute everything economic in both countries. The trend in technology now is towards giving more people a chance to survive while making a few very very rich. This will continue, but at the same time it will make some of the problems of the past disappear as countries can share their wealth with Ukraine and eventually with Russia. I do not think this period of racism and nationalism will survive the technological revolutions we are about to witness. I can’t wait to drive and electric car and I am sure Russians will want to sacrifice a bit of their nationalism in order to be more accommodating on the world stage.