Category: Foreign policy

The Future of Gaza

Hamas had good reasons for its Oct 7 attack on Israel. However, its vicious attack was not justified. Israel has good reasons for its attack on Gaza. However, its vicious attack is not justified. What follows? Who will occupy and rule Gaza when Israel ends its assault and withdraws?

One State Solution

The answer to that question should reflect what will best serve Israel’s security and prosperity. “I am the only one who will prevent a Palestinian state in Gaza and [the West Bank] after the war,” Netanyahu told Likud lawmakers, according to Israel’s Kan public broadcaster. However, the aim of the right wing of Netanyahu’s government to kill or otherwise remove Palestinians from Gaza and the West Bank in order to allow a single, democratic, Jewish state over the whole region is not acceptable to most Jews both in Israel and elsewhere. Such a genocide or pogrom would not be acceptable to most people.

The 700,000 Palestinians driven from their homes in 1947 in the war that established the state of Israel now occupy Gaza, the West Bank, Jordan, Syria, and Lebanon.  Along with increasing illegal Israeli settlements in the West Bank and the Israel army’s occupation of the WBGS since the Six Day War in 1967, frictions have increase between these regions.  For more details see my book: Palestine: The Oslo Accords Before and After-My Travels to Jerusalem”

One of many abuses under Israel occupation has been the arrest and detention of Palestinians, many of them children, for protesting or attacking their occupiers. Over 800,000 have been jailed, about a third with no charges or trail.  “The power to incarcerate people who have not been convicted or even charged with anything for lengthy periods of time, based on secret ‘evidence’ that they cannot challenge, is an extreme power,” noted Israeli human rights group B’Tselem. “Israel uses it continuously and extensively, routinely holding hundreds of Palestinians at any given moment.”  “Israel Palestine detention”  

A recent example was the arrest of 22 year old Ahed Tamimi on Nov 6. “After holding Ms. Tamimi for nearly three weeks without access to a lawyer or her family, Israel moved to incarcerate her under administrative detention….  The Israeli military has said Ms. Tamimi was arrested on suspicion of inciting violence and calling for terrorist activity, but has declined to provide further information. Her mother said the arrest was based on a post to an Instagram account in her name that referenced Hitler and vowed to “slaughter” settlers in the West Bank.” NYtimes – Ahed Tamimi detained”  

While Hamas has fired thousands of rockets into Israel, they have resulted in few casualties. Between December 9th 1987 and April 30th 2021, conflict casualties for Palestinians and Israelis claimed 13,969 lives. Fully 87% of the dead were Palestinian. If Israel is not prepared to give full and equal rights to Palestinians within one integrated state, it will need to make peace with and end its occupation of the WBGS. “A one state solution”

Two State Solution

“President Biden recently declared his desire to see a ‘revitalized’ Palestinian government that could bring together Gaza and the West Bank under ‘a single governance structure.’ That is a worthy aim.” A two state solution requires a Palestinian agreement with Israel over borders, right of return (if any), the status of Jerusalem and an efficient, properly functioning Palestinian government for WBGS. Palestinians will need to give up their claims to lost homes now in Israel and formally recognize the State of Israel. But neither side will be safe and secure without a proper, and effective Palestinian government. ‘Biden Calls for Recognition of Palestinian State”

Effective governance of Gaza must be part of the new Palestine (following a transition period of UN or other international control). To get there an interim administration by Hamas and Palestinian Authority officials will be necessary while preparing for internationally supervised election in the WBGS. How does that square with Israel’s determination to obliterate Hamas?

Israel’s goal should be to end the capacity of Hamas fighter to threaten Israel. That does not and must not mean to destroy the capacity of Gaza’s administrative bodies to oversee the essential services any society requires. Seen in terms of the United States, it would mean incapacitation the U.S. military, not the other departments of the U.S. government.

If you think this is obvious, consider the amazing steps by the U.S. lead Coalition Provisional Authority in Iraq of which I was sadly a part in its final months in 2004. In what must rank as two of the most destructive acts of any occupying force, the first two Orders by the CPA kneecapped the Iraqi government and turned its army out onto the street “unemployed.”

“Section 1 Disestablishment of the Baath Party

“1) On April 16, 2003 the Coalition Provisional Authority disestablished the Baath Party of Iraq. This order implements that declaration by eliminating the party’s structures and removing its leadership from positions of authority and responsibility in Iraqi society. By this means, the Coalition Provisional Authority will ensure that representative government in Iraq is not threatened by Baathist elements returning to power and that those in positions of authority in the future are acceptable ot the people of Iraq.

“2) Ful members of the Baath Party holding the ranks of ‘Udw Qutriyya (Regional Command Member), U’ dw Far* (Branch Member), ‘Udw Shu’ bah (Section Member), and ‘Udw Firqah (Group Member) (together, “Senior Party Members”) are hereby removed from their positions and banned from future employment in the public sector.”

The Baath Party was the equivalent of Hamas in Gaza. Rather than removing the government’s leaders, this order removed most of those with the knowledge and ability to administer the Iraqi government.

“Coalition Provisional Authority Order Number 2: Dissolution of Entities signed by Coalition Provisional Authority on 23 May 2003, disbanded the Iraqi military, security, and intelligence infrastructure of President Saddam Hussein.[1] It has since become an object of controversy, cited by some critics as the biggest American mistake made in the immediate aftermath of the fall of Saddam Hussein[2] and as one of the main causes of the rise of the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL/ISIS).” “Coalition Provisional Authority Order 2”.

You can find more details on the Iraq experience in my book “Iraq: An American Tragedy-My Travels tp Baghdad”

Conclusion

Israel’s security would be best served by agreement with its Palestinian neighbors on recognition of a Palestine State. This will require the end of illegal settlements in the WBGS, end of Israel’s occupation of the WBGS, and observance of other UN degrees. To apply maximum pressure on Israel to meet these conditions, the U.S. should join the vast majority of UN members in supporting these measures and recognize the State of Palestine. Palestine must recognize the State of Israel, respect its borders and laws, and renounce violence.  And the U.S., Gulf States, and UN should support and facilitate the establishment and development of a unified Palestinian Authority.

Defending Palestine

“Thousands of protesters forced the closure of Grand Central station in New York on Friday night in a large sit-in against Israel’s bombardment of Gaza. The demonstration, [where] made up mostly of Jewish New Yorkers,” “Protest-New York Grand Central-Israel Gaza Palestine”   Bless them.

Palestinians killed by the Israeli military passed 8,000 on Oct 29. Over half were women and children. Hamas’s vicious attack on Israel Oct 7 killed 1,400 Israelis. All of those deaths should be condemned. When President Biden questioned the accuracy of the Gaza Health Ministry’s tally, many Muslims and Arab Americans were shocked and angered having previously been shocked at Biden’s blank check to Netanyahu to do whatever it takes to wipe out Hamas. “Biden Israel Palestine Muslim Americans war”   

“The United States vetoed a draft resolution at the UN Security Council which called for a humanitarian pause in besieged Gaza. The draft resolution, proposed by Brazil, condemned the October 7 terror attacks in Israel by Palestinian militant group Hamas, which killed over 1,400 people, and urged the release of hostages taken. It also called on all parties to comply with international law and protect civilian lives in Hamas-controlled Gaza amid a ferocious retaliation by Israeli warplanes. The international community should engineer “humanitarian pauses” in the fighting to allow for aid delivery, it said. Twelve of the council’s 15 members approved the draft on Wednesday, with the UK and Russia abstaining, and a US veto.” US vetoes Security Council call for ‘humanitarian pause’ in Israel-Hamas war | CNN

More recently the Biden White House has held meetings with its Muslim and Arab staff as well as Arab community leaders to gain a better understanding of the issues from their perspective. Biden now calls for a humanitarian pause and has cautioned Israel to minimize civilian casualties. “Biden Israel Palestine Muslim Americans’ war”

The claims of some that most Palestinians in Gaza support Hamas are simply false “What Palestinians really think about Hamas”  

The viciousness of the attacks by Hamas and Israel has sadly aroused some to challenge America’s cherished free speech tradition with the all too typical cry of antisemitism against those defending Palestinian rights. ”An Israeli American professor at Columbia University’s business school slammed his employer in a fiery speech on campus Wednesday night — ripping the university for apparently not publicly denouncing pro-Palestinian student organizations that he claimed are ‘pro-terror.’”  “Columbia professor rips university’s president over Israel Hamas war response”

But our freedom to speak is too important to our free society to be easily snuff out. Dozens of Columbia University and Bernard College faculty issued an open letter defending not only the right of its students to defend Palestinians but the substance of their letter as well.

The letter stated in part that “In our view, the student statement aims to recontextualize the events of October 7, 2023, pointing out that military operations and state violence did not begin that day, but rather it represented a military response by a people who had endured crushing and unrelenting state violence from an occupying power over many years…. It is worth noting that not all of us agree with every one of the claims made in the students’ statement, but we do agree that making such claims cannot and should not be considered anti-Semitic….

“We ask Columbia University’s leadership, our faculty colleagues, Columbia alumni, potential employers of Columbia students, and all who share a commitment to the notion of a just society to join us in condemning, in the strongest of terms, the vicious targeting of our students with doxing, public shaming, surveillance by members of our community, including other students, and reprisals from employers.” “Open letter from Columbia and Barnard faculties” Amen

We all need this discussion in order to hear and understand everyone’s point of view. Peace will not come to Israel and to the West Bank and Gaza Strip until the Jews and Palestinians living there reconcile their grievance’s and adhere to just treatment of all.

Defending Israel

“’Hamas is ISIS,’ declared Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu…. ‘Just as the forces of civilization united to defeat ISIS, the forces of civilization must support Israel in defeating Hamas,’ Netanyahu said…. Hamas, which Israeli Foreign Minister Eli Cohen said on Tuesday ‘must be erased off the face of the planet.’… Israeli officials have vowed a merciless campaign of retribution against ‘human animals.’” “Washington Post: Hamas ISIS Islamic State Israel terrorism analogy”

That requires some unpacking. For starters: “ISIS literally views Hamas as apostates” Washington Post. But more importantly, even if Israel wanted to treat Hamas like it would treat ISIS, it would not be legally or morally justified in what it is now doing to Gaza and its largely Palestinian residents. Israel is starving and bombing them to death (no food, water, power) and as of noon Oct 25 4,385 have been killed by Israeli bombs, 62% of which are women and children and probably none are Hamas officials.

Efforts to defeat ISIS around the world were focused on the members of ISIS and not the people of the country they were operating in.  “Israel-Hamas-war-Gaza-Palestine-ground invasion strategy”  “UN chief Antonio Guterres on Tuesday asserted that no party to an armed conflict is above international humanitarian law as he expressed deep alarm over the “relentless bombardment” of the Hamas-ruled Gaza Strip by Israeli forces and appealed to all to “pull back from the brink” before the violence escalates even further.” ‘No one above law UN chief on Gaza bombing”

On Oct 23, former President Obama issued a statement that included: “But even as we support Israel, we should also be clear that how Israel prosecutes this fight against Hamas matters. In particular, it matters — as President Biden has repeatedly emphasized — that Israel’s military strategy abides by international law, including those laws that seek to avoid, to every extent possible, the death or suffering of civilian populations….  Palestinians have also lived in disputed territories for generations; that many of them were not only displaced when Israel was formed but continue to be forcibly displaced by a settler movement that too often has received tacit or explicit support from the Israeli government; that Palestinian leaders who’ve been willing to make concessions for a two-state solution have too often had little to show for their efforts; and that it is possible for people of good will to champion Palestinian rights and oppose certain Israeli government policies in the West Bank and Gaza without being anti-semitic.” Barack Obama: My statement on Israel and Gaza”

In the following English language press conference on October 13, Hamas claims that its attack on Oct 7 was in reaction to 70 years of abusive Israeli occupation of Palestinian lands and was defensive and aimed only at military targets. Their attack was not undertaken in a vacuum, and as excessive as I think it was, it would be wise to understand their claims. Strangely today is the first I heard about this press conference: Hamas press conference

If Israel displaces Hamas as the government of Gaza, what are its plans for future governance of the area (assuming that there is anyone left to govern)? Post columnist David Ignatius discusses this issue. “Israel Gazans Hamas war rebuilding”  In the meantime we should demand that Israel end its slaughter of innocent Palestinians.

Preserving the Global Order

As the number of BRICS member countries grows, the international organizations through which countries cooperate are at risk of fragmenting.  To keep the IMF, World Bank, WTO, WHO, ITU and other international bodies together to perform their financial, standard setting, and coordination functions that have contributed so much to global prosperity, each member must believe that they are fairly represented in such bodies.

Unlike the UN’s one country one vote, members of the International Monetary Fund and World Bank, have votes (quotas) that reflect their economic importance. The fundamental criteria for the financial contribution and voting share of each member country in the IMF and WB are the economic size of its economy and its share of world trade and reserves.

When they were established after WWII in 1944, the total size of the IMF was 8.8 billion dollars of which $2.9 billion was pledged by the U.S. giving it a quota (and vote) of 33% of the total. Any major policy decisions or amendments to the IMF’s Article of Agreement require an 85% support. This gave, and continues to give, the U.S. a veto over any important measure it doesn’t like. At that time the U.K. quota of $1.3 billion was 15% of the total and that of France was $0.65 billion or 7.4% of the total.

The Republic of China was an original member of the IMF in 1944, whose seat was transferred to the Peoples Republic of China in 1980 with a quota of 1.2 billion SDR which was 3.1% of the total of SDR 39.0 billion. “What are SDRs?” This was promptly increased to 1.8 billion SDRs (4.6%). The quotas and voting strength of the IMF’s six largest members in 1980 and 2022 were:

                        1980               2022

U.S.           19.83%               16.08%

U.K.             6.94%               4.03%

Germany    5.13%               5.31%

China           4.62%              6.08%

France.        4.57%              4.03%

Japan.          3.96%              6.14%

Over the last 4 decades, China and many other lower income countries have grown significantly. U.S. GDP in 1980 was $9.7 trillion in 2022 dollars while China’s was $1.03 trillion in 2022 dollars.  But by 2022 the US economy had double while Chinas increased almost 14 times. The adjustments in member quotas failed miserably to reflect these changes. The US quota dropped from 19.8% to 16.5% while China’s increased from 4.62% to 6.08%

In 2022 GDPs of the top five were:

  1. United States: $20.89 trillion
  2. China: $14.72 trillion
  3. Japan: $5.06 trillion
  4. Germany: $3.85 trillion
  5. United Kingdom: $2.67 trillion
  6. India: $2.66 trillion

To quote from Wikipedia: “To further rebalance power in the IMF, China appealed for changes that would transfer voting power to developing economies. In 2010, the Chinese executive director of the Fund, Zhou Xiaochuan, addressed the board and asserted that giving more power to the emerging economies was critical for the group’s legitimacy, accountability and long-term health.”

In the IMF/WB annual meetings that just concluded in Morocco have called for an increase in IMF resources but distributed equiproportionately, i.e., with no change in members’ relative voting weight (quotas). This moves member quotas even further away from the basic formula for determining them. Why and what might be the consequence?

The U.S. has dominated the IMFs policies from its inception largely in furtherance of developing and preserving a liberal trading order that has benefited the world. But it is apparently unwilling to give up its veto power (a quota of more than 15%). Such dominance risks corruption over time: “Monopolies”   “The Dollar Again”

But if the governance of the IMF is not seen as fair by its members, they have an incentive to look elsewhere. China understandably wants the status and influence of its increased size. So, Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa (BRICS) have started to go their own way with China’s Belt and Road Initiative, Asia Infrastructure Investment Bank, and other China lead initiatives. More countries are joining the BRICS. The fragmenting of international norms and rules for cross countries relations threatens to harm global prosperity. As an early example, sovereign debt restructuring agreements are now being held up because of China’s reluctance to play ball with the term agreed by the other sovereign lenders.

U.S. and IMF—wake up. “Goodbye unipolar world and good riddance”

Golda

 The natural, instinctive reaction to abuse is revenge. Civilization requires taming many instincts useful for survival by hunters/gatherers, including the urge for revenge. Aggressive war is one of the worst and ugliest forms of revenge, but in “modern” society most of us are far removed from war’s realities when the war is “over there.”

Many movies do the best job possible in confronting us with the individual, personal tragedies of war for those of you who only experience it on TV news. I have no doubt that if more people understood the nature and consequences of war, they would advocate it far less often.

One of those movies you should watch is Golda. Golda Meir was the Prime Minister of Israel during the Yom Kippur War of 1973. It very well depicts the pain, confusion, and tragedy of war (in this case an attack on Israel by Egypt, which Israel obviously could not avoid). We watched it last night and cried yet again.

Israel and the WBGS – Next Steps

October 9, 2023

The first step and priority of any nation being attacked (e.g., Ukraine by Russian or Israel by Hamas) is to defend itself as best it can. The next step, how ever,  can easily succumb to the urge to seek revenge, as called for by Netanyahu, who is “ implementing a ‘full siege’ of the densely populated Gaza Strip — ‘no electricity, no food, no fuel,’ said Defense Minister Yoav Gallant — as part of a campaign that is aimed at destroying Hamas’s military capabilities” Wash Post “Israel-Gaza war Hamas” But such retaliation would be another escalation up the ladder toward total destruction—or, if you prefer, deeper into the hole.

“Even a decisive Israeli military victory is unlikely to end the country’s increasingly perilous security challenges. It’s not even clear what “winning” means…. “If the war stopped today, or even after Gaza looks like another war zone, Hamas has effectively won,” said Dan Kurtzer, a former U.S. Ambassador to Israel. “New Yorker: Israel may decimate Hamas, but can it win this war”

The more emotionally and politically difficult second step would aim to lower hostilities in the more distant future. It would seek to understand and deal with the issues that led to Hama’s brutal attack. “Wash Post: The Israeli-Hamas war has two paths forward”

“Palestinian demands are both clear and precise: Freeing all prisoners; respecting the sanctity of Palestinian holy sites in Jerusalem, ending the siege on Gaza and more.” “The Gaza war is lost, but will Netanyahu concede?” Should Israel negotiate these demands or retaliate?

The goals of the Oslo Accord that I worked hard to help implement –the two state solution—have not been realized. Both Israel and the Palestine Authority created according to the Oslo Accord have failed to measure up to their required roles and the U.S. has failed to hold each to account.

To quote from my blog on Oct 7 “Hamas’s objectives in the operation are no secret: First, retaliate and punish Israel for its occupation, oppression, illegal settlement, and desecration of Palestinian religious symbols, especially Al-Aqsa Mosque in Jerusalem; second, take aim at Arab normalisation with Israel that embraces its apartheid regime in the region; and lastly, secure another prisoner exchange in order to get as many Palestinian political prisoners released from Israeli jails as possible.”  https://wcoats.blog/2023/10/07/palestine-israel-and-wbgs/

In 2006, when Hamas won the most seats in the new Palestinian legislature “then Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice mused, ‘Certainly, I’ve asked why nobody saw it coming, and I hope that we will take a hard look, because it does say something about perhaps not having had a good enough pulse on the Palestinian population.’ The words are haunting, once again, today.” “New Yorker: Israel may decimate Hamas, but can it win this war”

The U.S. winked when the election losing Fatah, headed by Mahmoud Abbas, ignored the election results and took over the Palestinian Authority. The U.S. closed its eyes all together when Israelis murdered Palestinian men, women and children and bulldozed their homes to make way for more Israeli settlements. What were we expecting?

The World on Fire

We just watched the first season of Masterpiece Theater’s production of “The World on Fire”. Masterpiece Theater remains the best of the best. The list of outstanding shows is long but at the top of my list is “The Jewel in the Crown.” I have watched its 18 hours of the very best of drama three times, once in an all day party. My love of Masterpiece Theater started in 1981 with “Brideshead Revisited.”  The only American show that tops them is “The Wire.”

Part of what I like about “The World on Fire” is that the horror and tragedy of war is shown as it impacts individual people and families. While I know that the little old ladies on the street thanking solders for their service have their hearts in the right place, their good wishes to the young men and women to go off and die for our country sickens me. Aside from Japan’s attack on Pearl Harbor in 1941 and al-Qaeda’s attack on New York and the Pentagon on 9/11, we have fought our many more recent wars (of choice) in far off places most of you have never been to.

I was never in the military nor fought in any war, but I have worked in many post conflict countries (Bosnia, Afghanistan, Iraq, and Kosovo) and lost colleagues to assassinations while there. We need to understand what war is really like, and the thousands upon thousands of individuals and their families who suffer losses of limbs or lives and property and ways of life for what very often could have and should have been avoided. Why do we encourage Ukraine to fight to the last Ukrainian rather than agree to terms with Russia that could have prevented the invasion in the first place? There are those who profit from these far off wars but many more who suffer greatly. Unfortunately, the former buy more influence than the latter. Movies like “The World on Fire,” can help us better understand the ugly horror of generally unnecessary wars.  https://wcoats.blog/2014/06/19/war-bosnia-kosovo-afghanistan-iraq-libya/    https://wcoats.blog/2021/07/05/the-iraq-war/  https://wcoats.blog/2009/09/03/iraq-kidnapping-update/ 

Monopolies

A company that produces a really attractive product or service and does so efficiently and thus at lower cost than can potential competitors, will grow and potentially dominate and even monopolize that market. It is tempting for such very successful companies to seek laws and regulations that protect their dominance by making it harder for potential competitors to enter those markets with lower costs. But as a company enjoys its increasingly protected monopoly, it tends to lose the edge that put it on top in the first place. Its drive to innovate is reduced. It tends to become lazy and even corrupt in the defense of its monopoly position. While economist differ on what policies are best when dealing with a monopolist, there is generally consensus that monopolies are bad in the long run.

The same is true of countries that grow to international dominance. With the collapse of the Soviet Union and the resulting unipolar dominance of the United States, the U.S. increasingly behaves like a bully and disregards the rules of international commerce and diplomacy that it helped establish and demands that others follow.

The United States was founded on an extremely well-conceived set of principles designed to protect its individual citizens to lead their own lives and pursue their own flourishing as they each saw fit. The American constitution limited what the government may do to enumerated powers and provided checks and balances on the actions of each branch of government. For the most part these restrictions have held, and our government has provided the defense, protection, and framework needed for our individual flourishing.

But as we gained strength and dominance and especial during our brief period of unipolarity, we increasingly violated the rules we demanded that others follow. For example, we joined others to sponsor the World Trade Organization to establish the rules of fair trade in order to maximize the benefits of higher incomes for everyone made possible by trade.  We properly challenged China for dumping its excess steel on the market as a violation of WTO rules. But President Trump’s tariffs on Canadian, European, as well as Chinese steel in the name of national defense violated WTO rules as well as common sense. And how do President Biden’s multibillion dollar subsidies for domestic semiconductor chip production differ from “China’s state-led, non-market approach to the economy and trade” we object to?

Though the U.S. won most of the cases it brought to the WTO Appellate Body, the WTO’s dispute resolution body, that Body has not been able to function since December 2019 because the US has blocked the appoint of new judges.

But it gets worse. We have rightly condemned Russia for violating the sovereignty of Ukraine by invading it, while overlooking our equally illegal violations or attempted violations of the sovereignty of Cuba, Iraq, and Libya among others.  

But it gets worse still. In reaction to Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s accusation that the government of India was responsible for the assassination of Canadian Sikh activist Hardeep Singh Nijjar on Canadian soil, Adrienne Watson, the White House National Security Council spokesperson, said “targeting dissidents in other countries is absolutely unacceptable and we will keep taking steps to push back on this practice.” Had she forgotten the dozens of such assassinations carried out by the U.S. on foreign soil? Of the more recent was the drone attack in Yemen that killed Anwar al-Awlaki and his young grandson on September 30, 2011. Al-Awlaki was an Islamic scholar and lecturing living here in Arlington Va.  Our assassination of Qasem Soleimani in Baghdad on January 3, 2020, again with a drone attack, raised considerable international criticism. Soleimani was the Commander of the Quds Force of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. We were not at war with either Iran or (at that time) Iraq.

With our near monopoly of political power in the world, the ability of our defense industry to protect and promote its profitable supply of weapons is strong. We can be thankful of their capacity to produce the weapons that defend us. But our military industrial complex that President Eisenhower warned us of profits however and by whom ever its products are used. Its profits are strengthened and sustained by our forever wars and those we supply. Ike knew of what he spoke.

Of the 2023 FY budget (ending next week) of $1.7 trillion in discretionary spending (yes trillions if you can swallow that), $860 billion (or 50.6%) was for defense. Half of that was paid to the defense industry. Most of that is for weapons. But they provide other services as well. When I was living in Baghdad as part of the Coalition Provisional Authority in 2004, Halliburton (the company Dick Chaney had been Chairman and CEO of) provided our meals in the Embassy mess hall (Saddam Hussein’s Presidential Palace). Lockheed alone gets more of its annual revenue from the federal government than the annual GDP of all but the top 81 countries (about half) in the world.

While our constitution’s checks and balances go a long way to protect our government from capture by the defense and other industries, the honestly of our elected representatives (devotion to the interests of their constituents and our country rather than to the size of their corporate contributions) still matters. It is hard to understand otherwise why we send our sons and daughters off to fight and die in foreign lands or encourage Ukraine to fight to the last Ukrainian.

Our government and foreign policy have been corrupted by our unipolar dominance. But our very arrogance—abide by our rules while we do what we want—has and will increasingly weaken our global influence. There are faint signs that we are being to recognize this new reality and tempering our behavior. The demise of our monopoly behavior and our return to fair and proper competition should be encouraged.

It makes sense to restrict trade of important military products. National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan was right to claim that we should aim for a “small yard with a high fence” to protect military supplies while otherwise maximizing beneficial trade. But the profit motive of our defense industries to expand the size of that yard as much as possible is strong and has been and will be hard to resist.

The Iran Deal

I have yet to understand how the US withdrawal from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action with Iran (the Iran Deal) was supposed to prevent Iran’s development of atomic weapons better than would the Iran Deal itself. But hopefully today’s deal with Iran is a step toward reentering the JCPOA.

Quoting the Crisis Group:

“The Biden administration has just completed implementing… agreement that secures the freedom of five American hostages in Iran in return for the release of an equivalent number of Iranian prisoners in the United States.

“In parallel, the Biden administration has also agreed to unfreeze nearly $6 billion worth of Iranian oil revenue stuck for years in South Korean banks that Tehran can use to purchase food and medicine. “

Corruption and the American Empire

I truly believe that the vast majority of American’s who worked in Afghanistan after the U.S. toppled the Taliban government in December 2001 where genuinely motivated by the desire to help Afghanistan (and thus the U.S.)—myself included. “Warren’s Travels”  But as Ms. Chayes makes clear, we are just bad at it. “Afghanistan’s corruption was made in America”

Pursuing Empire is not what we are about. It is not “The beacon on the hill” that has rightly attracted the best and brightest to our shores. Of late even that beacon is threatening to go out. We should stay home and rebuild the capacity to cooperate where needed to enable us each to flourish in our own ways.