From the River to the Sea

The subtitle of my memoire is “From the River to the Sea, All should be Free.” I deliberately chose this potentially provocative statement to warn readers to expect to encounter my political views and to refuse to allow the English language to be twisted by the political views of others. In the same spirit, I always stated that “All Lives Matter” rather than the more restrictive “Black Lives Matter.”  I have always defended the rights of All people to peace, justice and equal rights.

I asked my AI search engine the following:

What different groups chant “From the River to the Sea “ and what does each group mean by that?

The reply was:

The phrase “From the River to the Sea” is used by various groups with differing interpretations:

  1. Pro-Palestinian Activists: For many, it symbolizes the aspiration for Palestinian liberation and equality across the region from the Jordan River to the Mediterranean Sea, often seen as a call for peace and justice.
  2. Jewish and Pro-Israel Groups: Many perceive it as a threat to Israel’s existence, viewing it as a call for the elimination of the Jewish state, especially when used by groups like Hamas.

“When someone says from the river to the sea, Palestine will be free, I question, ‘Where do you see the Jews going?'” said Yair Szlak, president and CEO of Montreal-based Federation CJA. ‘That is hate speech, right, because it is into the sea that they seek to send the Jews.’”

Take a close look at this amazing statement. Mr. Sziak implies that the only way Palestinians can be free is by getting rid of the Jews!!  Aside from being a absurd statement, it is sadly revealing of the thinking of some Israelis.

“Yousef Munayyer, head of the Palestine-Israel program at the Arab Center Washington D.C., has written extensively about the meaning of the slogan before and since Hamas’s attacks on Oct. 7, which led to Israel’s current bombardment of the Gaza Strip. 

“Munayyer says today, the phrase is used to reference the lack of freedoms Palestinians have in the territory between the Jordan River and the Mediterranean Sea, which includes the state of Israel as well as the Gaza Strip and the occupied territories of the West Bank and East Jerusalem. 

“’That’s what has to change. That doesn’t mean that there should be any violence against Israelis,’ Munayyer said.” https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/from-the-river-to-the-sea-palestine-1.7033881

Labor Unions

To maximize a company’s market value, it must maximize its expected profits over time (its current market price reflects the discounted present value of expected future profits). To do so it must offer products or services that the public wants at prices they are prepared to pay that exceed the cost of supplying them. These products must be produced with the quality desired and as cheaply as possible. But that requires hiring workers of appropriate skills and providing them with appropriate tools (investments in equipment and other inputs) while paying them no more than is required to attract and retain them. “Appropriate” in these contexts means cost effective (best output at lowest cost).

Unions can help a firm’s management find, train, keep and manage the most appropriate workers. The general work environment is part of what attracts workers in addition to wages and related benefits. The optimal mix of the “right” capital and the “right” labor to produce market demanded products, produces the biggest pie to split between labor and shareholders (i.e., maximizes profits). So, both labor and owners share an interest in getting it right (maximizing). When unions deal with management in this positive sum, win-win frame of mind both they and shareholders benefit. But unions that see the process as zero sum and simply seek to maximize their share of the pie, reduce the size of the pie (loss-loss). American unions too often fall into this trap.

My personal experiences with American unions have not been good. I will share the experiences of my parents and myself that have influenced my views.

During the summers of my undergraduate studies at the U of California at Berkeley, I worked in the oil fields of Kern County for Shell Oil. Children of Shell employees like my dad were given preference for such jobs (typical profit maximizing behavior). A typical summer day in Kern County was dry, with temperatures ranging from 105 degrees to an occasional 112. This was more comfortable than a typical humid day of 95 degrees here in the Washington DC area. The first summer I worked in the fields north of Bakersfield, and the second summer at the ten-section refinery fields where my dad had worked in the refinery west of Bakersfield.

The full-time Shell employees I worked with, along with two other summer hires, were all pleasant and talked about their families and such things during our lunches together in the “doghouse,” as they called it. I had no idea whether they were union members or not. Digging up leaky pipes as a roustabout in such heat was a challenge.

My second year I was promoted to working on a well pulling rig. The traditional rocker-arm wells that you have surely seen in pictures are fairly shallow and push the oil up a pipe as the rocker moves up and down. The pump is attached to the bottom of this pipe and opens to let the oil in, and then closes as it pushes it up the pipe with each rock. We pulled the pipes, with their pump on the bottom end, out of existing wells for repair.

Every now and then the pump at the bottom failed to open to allow the oil to flow out as our rig pulled it up. Those were called wet wells as rather than draining out, the oil spouted out the top and rained down on the rig platform. The first time I encountered a wet well, the guys recommended that I put on a wet suit to keep the oil off me. As I recall it was 110 degrees that day and I turned down the wetsuit. However, as I become covered in oil my sweat stopped evaporating and I almost passed out. I had to sit out the rest of the day in great embarrassment.

My third summer I was paired with the full-time employee in the supply yard behind Shell’s Kern County headquarters that provided all the parts needed out in the fields. We rode around in a forklift to load needed supplies onto trucks that delivered them to the fields. My “partner” was a union member, All he could talk about was how Shell was exploiting us. I hated it and hated him and his antagonistic rather than cooperative attitude. This added to my dislike of American unions.

Many years earlier when Shell workers went on strike, my dad had to strike as well, as he had to belong to the union to work in the refinery. After a month or two, when it was clear that the strike was about to end, several union guys came to our house and threatened my pregnant mother (with my seven-year younger brother), that it would be unhealthy for her if my dad went back to work already.

Many years later, when my mother had become an elementary school teacher, she disliked the teacher’s union as having little real interest in the kids, but spent their time protecting the jobs of mediocre teachers.

It seems to me that unions are helpful or detrimental (good or bad) depending on whether they see their negotiations with their companies in positive sum or zero-sum terms. Mandatory union membership is more likely to result in the latter, detrimental relationship.

Where have all the flowers gone?

My mornings these days are spent reading email and news reports sitting in a swing on our master bedroom balcony, from which I can view Reagan National Airport and further south the skyline of Alexandria Va. Ito serves my coffee and a cut orange to me there. Life is wonderful (age adjusted). Thankfully I am no longer faced with life defining choices—forks in the road.  Luckily most of my choices worked out well. But I am happy to no longer face them.

While reading the Post, WSJ, etc. on my iPad, I listen alternatively to Opera areas and my favorite folk singers of my youth.  This morning while listening to Peter, Paul and Mary sign “Where have all the Flowers Gone,” I broking into tears and thought I would share with you why. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZgXNVA9ngx8

I believe that the hearts of most young people seek to “do good”– to prosper by or while making the world a better place, which is the essence of capitalism. There are, of course, a few bad apples, but most of us are born with good hearts and a desire to prove themselves worthy. Over too much of history young men too often proved their worthiness by going to war to defend their country, or, at the instigation of those bad apples, to expand their empire. So, the impulse to reach out and help others has often been subverted in our youth to standing up to kill them instead, dying themselves in large numbers. World War II, alone killed 70-85 million people and injured multiples of that. Where have all the flowers gone.

My tears flowed from the sadness that we have failed and still fail to nurture those good hearts into an even better world to the extent we could. The enterprise of our fellow man once liberated to pursue their dreams has lifted the wellbeing of the average person to unbelievable heights. But every young person knows that a good life consists of more than material wealth. We are again (or still?) in a period when far too many people can only think of dealing with our fellow man by beating them down in war.  What a sad misuse of our potential. Where will all the flowers go?

The alternative to war

As Israel continues to slaughter women and children in Gaze, Hezbollah continues to flatten norther Israel, Russia continues roll back Ukrainian troops in Ukraine, I have tried to follow the pronouncements from all sides. The solution proposed by each is to win the war.

But can winning the war bring peace and security to Israel, to West Bank and Gaza, or to Ukraine? Israel wants to eliminate the Palestinians, but Germany’s genocide of six million Jews did not eliminate Jews. Israel’s genocide of Palestinians will not illuminate them either and even its systematic assassinations of Hamas rulers (most recently Ismail Haniyeh in Iran) will not eliminate Hamas. Peace will not come to Israel, the WBGS, Lebanon, or Syria by winning THE WAR.

 “While Israel has not yet issued an official statement, with the attack [on Haniyeh], it has reinforced the message that it speaks with the language of force above all else…. Assassinating Haniyeh, perhaps the most important member of Hamas’s negotiating team, fits within Israel’s narrative that the only way to achieve an end to the Gaza war is to force Hamas to surrender militarily. To most of the rest of the world, the assassination of a lead negotiator for a potential peace deal is certainly viewed as a bloody sabotage of multinational efforts to end the genocidal war.” “Assassination of Hamas leader Haniyeh”  “From Paris to Beirut-Israels long record of assassinating Palestinians”

As long as the focus remains on winning wars, none of the Middle Eastern countries will be safe and at peace. The countries of the Middle East (or anywhere else) must determine and accept the terms for mutual treatment appropriate for good neighbor relationships. “Israel Hamas Iran Gaza Middle East”   Arriving at such agreements will not be easy, and will not be possible without large majorities of the populations of these countries truly wanting peace and security and being willing to treat each other fairly. “Best way to end Israels war with Gaza” “Why Palestinian unity matters”  But the search for such genuine peace must start with giving up the idea of winning the war and ending the current fighting.

The latest on Social Security Benefits

If no changes are made to the Social Security law: “Starting in 2034… Social Security will only have enough money to pay 79% of its promised benefits.” “Day of reckoning for Social Security draws closer”  The system promises a given pension upon retirement (a defined benefit) that is financed by a given payroll tax. It is not a pool of saving that is drown down at retirement. It is pay as you go. “Saving Social Security”.

This financial problem results from the fact that Americans are living longer and thus receive their SS pension for more years if there is no change in the retirement age. Moreover, the growth in the population has slowed so that the ratio of workers (i.e. those paying the tax financing the pensions of the retired) to retirees has fallen from approximately 3.3 in 1970 to 2.9 in 2020. It is projected to fall further to 2.0 by 2030.

The system must and will change, the only question is how. Legal immigration could be increased to increase the number of workers. The wage tax could be increased. Retirement age could be increased (20% voluntarily work after retirement already). As people live longer many choose to work longer for more than just the extra income. Pension benefits could be indexed to inflation rather than to wage growth (which has been greater than inflation). But more recently I have proposed replacing Social Security and other safety net programs with a Universal Basic Income for every man, woman and child without exception. Such a remake of our social safety net would have several very good features. “Replacing Social Security with a Universal Basic Income”

Econ 101: Trade balance

Everyone understands that we are each wealthier if we buy most of what we consume from others and pay for it with what we specialize in producing ourselves. But at dinner last night one of our guests (Chatham House Rules prevent me from revealing his identity) asked how we can compete with China when their workers are so cheap? The teacher in me rises up to unpack this statement and the related issue of trade balance. It is both complicated and simple.

  1. Are Chinese goods cheaper? Chinese workers are paid in their currency (RMB) and American’s buy China’s output in our currency (USD). If an LED light bulb made in China is sold for 140 RMB is that cheap for American’s? If the exchange rate of RMB for USD is 4 RMB per USD it will cost us $35 per bulb (expensive), but if the exchange rate is 10 RMB per USD it will cost us $14 per bulb (cheap).
  2. So will we buy everything from China? What will the Chinese do with the dollars they receive from exporting to us? They might buy goods from the US (made by workers who used to make LED light bulbs). If the exchange rate is “right”, the Chinese will spend all of those export dollars on imported US products. Trade (imports and exports) will balance.  An exchange rate that makes dollars more expensive in China (RMB cheaper in the US) will decrease China’s imports from the US relative to its exports (a Chinese trade surplus). What will they do with the remaining dollars held in China?
  3. What happens with Chinese trade surplus holding of USD? The Chinese can invest them in the US (buy US Treasury securities, stocks, property, etc.). Or sell them for their own currency driving the exchange rate of RMB for USD down (or up depending on what you put in the denominator). The reduced cost in China of US goods will increase Chinese imports and the higher cost of Chinese good in the US will reduce US imports from China. The Chinese trade surplus (US trade deficit) will vanish (or adjust to the rate of capital flow desired by cross border investors). The incomes of Chinese and American workers will be higher because each will be producing the goods for which they each have a comparative advantage (the win-win of free trade).
  4. Exchange rate manipulation or production subsidies distort the outcome. EU tariffs on Chinese EVs are explicitly set at a level to compensate for Chinese government subsidies of EVs. This is allowed by WTO trade rules to put Chinese and German car manufacturers on a fair, competitive basis. The US’s much higher tariff on Chinese EVs makes no mention of complying with WTO rules (the US again does whatever it wants to the detriment of the global trading system).
  5. Trade balance between US and China is used as a simplification. What matters is the balance between each country and the rest of the world but distilling the world into two countries simplifies the discussion.
  6. Time for the dessert.

The Right to Choose

I have always supported a woman’s right to choose whether to complete a pregnancy up to the point at which another person (her fetus) acquires existence and thus the protection of the law. In my view a fetus becomes a person when viable, i.e. when they are able to live outside the womb. In my opinion, laws that permit abortions that comply with that standard, should not force those who disagree to pay for such abortions. Thus I do not support allowing the Armed services to pay for its member’s wanting an abortion for the travel and related expenses of the abortion. Tax payers should not be forced to pay for such individual choices.

A similar argument has been made about taxpayer funding of elementary education. A Jewish taxpayer should not have to pay for a catholic child’s education in a catholic school or visa versa. But I also favor school choice. How do I defend this use of taxpayer’s money? An abortion up to the allowed age of the fetus is an individual choice. But elementary education is required for all children in the public interest. Thus, it is appropriate that the government (taxpayers) pay for it. But, providing public (i.e. taxpayer’s) money for each child’s education can and should leave the choice of school to each parent. It is appropriate that schools eligible to receive public funds meet minimum standards of curriculum to be covered. School choice not only maximizes the freedom of choice among parents with different religious beliefs and views on the most effect approach to education, but the competition among schools improves the over quality of education. https://wcoats.blog/2021/05/09/the-great-divide-who-decides/

Russia

Russia has become a pain in the ass. Why and what should we do about it? First we must realize and accept that Russia will always be here. Just as Nazi Germany’s Holocaust did not eliminate Jews and Israel’s effort to eliminate Palestinians (sufficiently to have a democratic Jewish Israel from the River to the Sea as stated in Zionist documents) will not succeed, it is not possible, nor would the world accept the morality of eliminating Russia.

So the goal must be to carrot and stick Russia into a neighbor we can live with—even productively and happily live with.  Our approach to Ukraine provides many lessons for what not to do. With the collapse of the USSR, Russia and the other former Soviet Republics passionately wanted to become part of Western “normal” world. It was great fun working with them toward that goal in the early 1990s.

Russia’s great cultural offerings were more open to us. Russia was added to the G7, which became the G8. Russians are a proud people, who had just been humiliated, and wanted respect. But our embraces were more stumbling than they should have been. After reassuring Russia that NATO would not expand one inch East in exchange for the reunification of Germany as a NATO. We lied. NATOs membership doubled from 16 to 32.

Russia swallowed hard and offered conditions for Ukrainian neutrality that were larging acceptable to Ukraine and in any event negotiable. But we didn’t support/encourage Ukraine to negotiate so Russia invaded it. Even two months later when Russia and Ukraine had virtually agreed on the terms for ending the war, we discouraged it. Two and a half years later 100,000 have been confirmed dead. About 60% of the total were Russian. Twice that many are estimated to have died. And damage to Ukrainian cities and country side will take trillions of dollars to repair. https://wcoats.blog/2022/05/15/ukraines-and-russias-war%ef%bf%bc/

A May 24 report from Reuters, stated that Putin himself “is ready to halt the war in Ukraine with a negotiated ceasefire that recognizes the current battlefield lines.” We seem to prefer that “they” continue fighting to the last Ukrainian. After all we have been able to test our military equipment in the field without the loss of American lives. But we must remember the lessons of the Holocaust and Gaza. We can’t wipe Russia off the map. They will be here five, ten, twenty years from now. What do we want our relationship with Russia to be then? What carrots and sticks will get us there?

From the River to the Sea–One State

Under Benjamin Netanyahu and his far-right coalition government, Israel is committing suicide. These are my thoughts on how it might be saved.

Israel’s response to Hamas’s brutal attack on Israel on Oct 7 has been the most inhuman effort to wipe out a people since the Holocaust. Netanyahu called for revenge “implementing a ‘full siege’ of the densely populated Gaza Strip — ‘no electricity, no food, no fuel,’ said Defense Minister Yoav Gallant — as part of a campaign that is aimed at destroying Hamas’s military capabilities” Wash Post “Israel-Gaza war Hamas”  As of May 14th “Palestinian health authorities say Israel’s ground and air campaign in Gaza has killed more than 35,000 people, mostly civilians, and driven most of the enclave’s 2.3 million people from their homes.” https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/gaza-death-toll-how-many-palestinians-has-israels-campaign-killed-2024-05-14/

Virtually every country in the world except the US has condemned Israels genocide as have many Jews. The Washington Post has an excellent account of a mother and son coping with opposite views on these events: https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2024/05/19/israel-gaza-university-protests-arrests/

The International Criminal Court (ICC) has applied for warrants for the arrest of Hamas leader Yehiya Sinwar, Izzedine al-Qassam Brigades leader Mohammed Diab Ibrahim al-Masri and Hamas political chief Ismail Haniyeh, as well as Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Defense Minister Yoav Gallant for alleged war crimes and crimes against humanity in their conduct in these attacks. US congressional and administration officials have attacked the ICC’s initiative (though it is supported by every legal authority I respect) and threatened retaliation in a display of the hypocrisy increasingly undermining US status in the world.

Patrick Leahy, author of the Leahy Law, which “prohibits U.S. aid to any unit of a foreign security force if the secretary of state has “credible information” the unit has committed a gross violation of human rights: murder, rape, torture, forced disappearance or other flagrant denials of the right to life, liberty and personal security.” states that Israel is guilty of such violations and the law should prevent Biden from sending weapons to Israel. https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2024/05/20/israel-leahy-human-rights-aid/

The recent attack and counterattack were continuations of 70 years of unresolved relations between the areas Palestinian and Jewish residents. Netanyahu remains adamantly against revising the Two State Solution (Oslo Accord) future and Saudi Arabia is equally insistent on it. Ireland, Norway, and Spain will officially recognize Palestine as a state from next week and other countries are expected to follow. 

The so far unsurmounted challenge was not a result of the gathering of Jews in what is now Israel, but the determination to make it a democratic Jewish State. Religious states, such as Iran, are always problematic. Israel can only be a democratic Jewish state by eliminating one way or another most Palestinians. American’s founding fathers had the wisdom to prohibit that by putting the separation of church and state in our constitution.

If Israel gave up being a Jewish state it could remain democratic and absorb the entire area from the River to the Sea. And every resident would receive the same protection of the law and equal rights. It should consider a federal structure in which smaller districts with local administrations might well be predominately Muslim or Jewish. https://wcoats.blog/2024/01/19/one-state-solution-for-palestine-israel/

Happy Birthday to me

Today I have lived for 82 years (29,848 days plus however many leap year days there have been). So please indulge my reflections on that life.  If you are really interested in more details, you can read my Autobiography being assembled by my friend Odell Huff on Kindle books (probably available in July). And or you can read any or all of my five travel books on my work in Afghanistan, Bosnia, FSU, Iraq, Kosovo, and Palestine, https://www.amazon.com/s?k=warren+coats&i=digital-text&crid=WKE7LWMI6LNS&sprefix=warren+coats%2Cdigital-text%2C74&ref=nb_sb_ss_fb_1_12  

It was certainly action packed (from a year in Germany as an high school exchange student, a member of the UC Berkeley Free Speech Movement council in 1964, marriage to Louise Wilkinson while teaching at the U of Hawaii, a Ph.D. from U of Chicago under Milton Friedman, Assistant Prof at UVA, birth of my son and daughter, 26 years at the International Monetary Fund during which I divorced Louise and married Ito Briones and led technical assistance missions to the central banks of over 20 countries). The teacher in me prodded me to share my economic and political thoughts with you in hundreds of blogs https://wcoats.blog/

I genuinely cared about trying to make the world a better place. In some ways it is but in many it is not. America’s role in the world has peaked and is in decline.  Others have tired of being pushed around by a bully who doesn’t pay that much attention to their interests. Sadly, most of the countries I worked in are no better off. On the other hand, the way God made me is now more widely accepted as OK and I have been able to married Ito. What concerns me most today is the lack of civil discourse and the mutual understanding discourse facilitates. Too often we consider those we disagree with bad rather than just wrong, which undermines rather than promotes understanding and cooperation.

But the real reason I, and people my age are generally happier than our younger friends, is, I think, because we have let go and stopped worrying about what we should do next. The fight for us is over (not that we don’t care anymore, but that we know we can no longer do anything about it). So, the political prospects for the next election, the attacks on free speech in the US, the shrinking of the free trade on which our prosperity has depended, the new holocaust in Gaza, while saddening events, wash over us without much personal pain.

What we have and can enjoy are wonderful and entertaining friends with whom we can visit, and dine and chat. Thank you all.