One of our Strengths

Two sights/thoughts are sure to bring tears to my eyes. One is seeing a child loose hope for its future. Almost nothing is sadder. The other is seeing people fighting for causes they believe in to help another person or society more generally. These happy tears are a response to the goodness in people.

But not everyone shares the same view of what the right cause is. Our founding fathers had the great wisdom to know that only by confronting the arguments for opposing views could we hope to find common ground or at least to understand and respect other views even if we did not share them and thus live peacefully together. So, in the very first Amendment to our constitutions (the Bill of Rights) they established that:

“Congress shall make no law respecting an establishment of religion, or prohibiting the free exercise thereof; or abridging the freedom of speech, or of the press; or the right of the people peaceably to assemble, and to petition the Government for a redress of grievances.”

We seem to be coming out of the sad generation over protected by “helicopter moms” who were so afraid of hearing something they might disagree with that they tried to ban such speech or demonstrations in direct violation of our Constitution. But the dangerous and pathetic Woke generation seems to be passing. The sharply different views over the tragic war in Israel and Palestine are testing our commitment to the wisdom of free speech and step by step that wisdom seems to be winning.

While the Millennials (the scardicat, afraid of their shadows generation mom kept from developing protective skins) tried to shut down and prevent encounters (speeches, demonstrations, etc.) that might offend their views (sought “safe spaces”), Gen Z seems to be reverting to the openness and search for the truth championed by our founding fathers.

There have always been some dissenters in every generation. Sadly a few people are just nasty (redneck fascist types). It’s hard for me to know how to characterize an adult like Governor DeSantis who cancels the self-governance contract with Disneyland and ordered the ban of the pro-Palestinian student group Students for Justice in Palestine (SJP) from university campuses in Florida, because he doesn’t like what they are saying. “A Land of Immigrants”

We should go out of our way to hear views we might disagree with, but to be construction we should urge our “opponents” to debate politely, to be civil, and do so ourselves.  Name calling, for example calling criticism of the Israeli government “antisemitism,” does not contribute to better mutual understanding of difficult issues. Our demonstrations should always be peaceful. We have work to do on those fronts, but the urge to ban seems to be retreating. The following article about the evolving situation of opposing views on the Israeli/Hamas/Gaza wars is encouraging to me and well worth reading. https://www.middleeasteye.net/news/israel-palestine-war-facing-suspension-mit-university-students-continue-pro-palestine-advocacy

Vivian Silver and Hamas

Vivian Silver, ”a 74-year-old Canadian Israeli peace activist, had vanished from her duplex in Kibbutz Beeri” on Oct 7 and is now one of the 242 hostages held by Hamas following their savage assault on Israel that killed 1,400 men women and children. “Israel war peace activist sons”

Israelis were and are divided over how Israel should respond to this attack. As of this writing (Nov 8) Israel’s bombing and ground attacks have killed over 10,000 Palestinians over half of them women and children. This ratio of Palestinians killed to Israelis killed (10 to 1.4) is about the same as the average over the last 50 years.

Israel’s savage attack on the people of Gaza was, in the words of Israel’s Prime Minister Netanyahu, “revenge”.  “Defending Israel”  But at a meeting in Jerusalem of hostage families, including Vivian’s two sons, Eli Cohen, the country’s foreign minister claimed that “Military pressure… would give Israel leverage in a hostage negotiation.”

Yonatan Zeigen, one of Vivian’s two sons, “believed that a ground invasion was not just bad strategy — it was immoral. It was a line Vivian might have said.”

Some days later while visiting the ruined remains of his mother’s home a solder leading a military tour of the ruins asked Yonatan: “’What do you think needs to be done about the hostages?’ And maybe it was because of where they stood, a few feet from his mother’s bedroom. Or because he was tired of trying to veil his opinions. This time, he made the moral argument.

“‘A cease-fire to save them,’ Yonatan replied.

“’Because the fighting puts them at risk?’ the soldier asked.

“’Yes, and I don’t think it’s the right thing to do.’

“’You don’t think it’s right to kill the terrorists?’

“’I think first we need to focus on the kidnapped people, and then make a major shift, and that will not come from war but from peace.’”

All of the above quotes are from the Washington Post article linked above. I recommend that you read it. I quote it at length to emphasize that every war casualty is an actual person with families and loved one impacted by their tragedy and that Israeli public opinion is very divided.

Hamas’ attack on Oct 7 was vicious and must be thoroughly condemned. Anger is a natural and understandable reaction, but it is not wise to determine how Israel can best protect itself from such atrocities in the future out of anger. Revenge is for foolish children. “Israel’s war in Gaza and Genocide” “Palestinian citizens Gaza war enemies”

Why did Hamas do what they did? Asking that question and seeking honest answers is not to forgive their atrocities but is necessary input to the development of a reaction that serves Israel best long run interest (which is living peacefully with its neighbors). We need to know and face up to Israel’s history of brutal treatment of the Palestinians they drove off their land to create Israel and those that continue to live in the so called West Bank and Gaza Strip. “Palestine Israel in perspective”

The brutal treatment of the Jews over their long history is well known and must not be forgotten either.

During one of my first visits to Israel to help implement the Oslo Accords provision for a Palestine Monetary Authority, I was driven by a very lovely estate in East Jerusalem by one of my Palestinian counterparts. She said: “that was my home and the home of my ancestors until the Jews drove us out. But I have given up demanding my ‘right of return’.” In 1948, Israeli forces drove an estimated 750,000 Palestinians out of their homes during the creation of Israel. In 1948, Israeli forces drove 750,000 Palestinians out in the Nakba – The Washington Post  The illegal Jewish settlements in the occupied West Bank aim to complete the job. “Amid the mourning Israel’s settlement enterprise celebrates a great victory”

Israel will not enjoy, and flourish in, peace until it establishes just relations with its Palestinian neighbors. But the necessary two state solution outlined in the Oslo Accords is hampered by an incompetent Palestine Authority. I don’t generally favor excessive American interference in other countries affairs, but we must stop allowing Israel’s illegal settlements and their mistreatment of Palestinians and must more actively promote an effective and honest Palestinian government. We have the financial and other leverage to do so.

Dominique De Villepin, former Prime Minister of France, makes similar points that are well worth reading:   “Dominique de Villepin-on-the-conflict-in-Palestine”

Serving Self Interest

If the goal of public policy is to maximize society’s wealth, in the broadest meaning of wealth (economic and cultural), what should that policy be? The invention and production of goods and services that enrich our lives (by providing food, shelter, safety, and entertainment) require a mix of cooperation and competition. How that mix is determined is the critical factor providing varied results in different societies. The Soviet Union represented one extreme of central determination and enforcement of the mix. The United States represents the other extreme encouraging individual determination of when and how to cooperate and when and how to compete based on each person’s self-interest.

What form of cooperation and competition maximizes society’s wealth and how should that optimal mix be determined? The exploitation of our self-interest to maximize wealth that has such extensive scope in the U.S. is guided by each person’s understanding of how their interests are best served.  Our moral code for how best to treat others and thus to be treated ourselves is a critical part of that understanding.

Alexis de Tocqueville, in his Democracy in America (1835), marveled at the extensive degree of voluntary cooperation in America. Americans joined together in church groups, civic clubs, charitable organizations, and sports clubs as part of their pursuit of their self-interests to a greater extent than in any other country in the world.

The tightest cooperative unit is the family, were trust between members is very high in dividing responsibilities while sharing its fruits, as they compete with other families for jobs and markets. Firms divide up tasks and cooperate in producing the best possible products and services with which to compete with other firms for market share (see Ronald Coase’s  The Nature of the Firm – Wikipedia). The Brooklyn Dodgers (now the Los Angeles Dodgers) cooperated within the club in order to better compete against other baseball clubs.

The wealth and success of America compared with the poverty and eventual failure of the Soviet Union reflects its better choices of the when and where and how much to cooperate vs compete. History has confirmed that those choices are best made by individuals pursuing their self-interest as they see and understand it. In Adam Smith’s foundational book: An Inquiry into the Nature and Causes of the Wealth of Nations (1776) Smith argues that when individuals pursue their own self-interest in a free market, they are led by an “invisible hand” to promote the general welfare of society. However, these invisible hands operate within and through a society’s legal, institutional, and moral environment. Well defined and secure property rights are particularly important.

The dramatic increase in material wealth for the average family and decline in poverty in relatively free market, capitalist economies over the past 250 years followed thousands of years of unchanging incomes and general poverty. https://humanprogress.org/trends/

I hope that our next generation of innovators and workers understand this.

Immigration and smuggling

America has a labor shortage. We need to widen the door to legal immigration and patrol our borders against illegal immigration and drug smuggling more effectively. The Biden administration has requested several billion dollars for that purpose and Congress should approve it. But how should it be paid for. “Congress funding of border control”

Every person and every country’s resources are limited. Their use for one thing means that they are not available to be used for something else. Budgets reflect our choices—our priorities. Increasing our border security would save tens of thousands of lives a year from reduced drug smuggling alone.

I suggest that we close our military bases in Europe and apply the money saved to increased border security and deficit reduction (sadly it would not be enough to reduce our debt only the deficit –i.e., the annual increase in debt). Our European bases cost $24.4 billion in 2018 (the latest figure I could find and with our support for the war in Ukraine it could only have increased). Our EU basses save no lives and add nothing to our security. They largely reduce the incentive for EU countries to provide for their own defense. But our immigration policy and border controls are a mess and should be improved.

Defending Palestine

“Thousands of protesters forced the closure of Grand Central station in New York on Friday night in a large sit-in against Israel’s bombardment of Gaza. The demonstration, [where] made up mostly of Jewish New Yorkers,” “Protest-New York Grand Central-Israel Gaza Palestine”   Bless them.

Palestinians killed by the Israeli military passed 8,000 on Oct 29. Over half were women and children. Hamas’s vicious attack on Israel Oct 7 killed 1,400 Israelis. All of those deaths should be condemned. When President Biden questioned the accuracy of the Gaza Health Ministry’s tally, many Muslims and Arab Americans were shocked and angered having previously been shocked at Biden’s blank check to Netanyahu to do whatever it takes to wipe out Hamas. “Biden Israel Palestine Muslim Americans war”   

“The United States vetoed a draft resolution at the UN Security Council which called for a humanitarian pause in besieged Gaza. The draft resolution, proposed by Brazil, condemned the October 7 terror attacks in Israel by Palestinian militant group Hamas, which killed over 1,400 people, and urged the release of hostages taken. It also called on all parties to comply with international law and protect civilian lives in Hamas-controlled Gaza amid a ferocious retaliation by Israeli warplanes. The international community should engineer “humanitarian pauses” in the fighting to allow for aid delivery, it said. Twelve of the council’s 15 members approved the draft on Wednesday, with the UK and Russia abstaining, and a US veto.” US vetoes Security Council call for ‘humanitarian pause’ in Israel-Hamas war | CNN

More recently the Biden White House has held meetings with its Muslim and Arab staff as well as Arab community leaders to gain a better understanding of the issues from their perspective. Biden now calls for a humanitarian pause and has cautioned Israel to minimize civilian casualties. “Biden Israel Palestine Muslim Americans’ war”

The claims of some that most Palestinians in Gaza support Hamas are simply false “What Palestinians really think about Hamas”  

The viciousness of the attacks by Hamas and Israel has sadly aroused some to challenge America’s cherished free speech tradition with the all too typical cry of antisemitism against those defending Palestinian rights. ”An Israeli American professor at Columbia University’s business school slammed his employer in a fiery speech on campus Wednesday night — ripping the university for apparently not publicly denouncing pro-Palestinian student organizations that he claimed are ‘pro-terror.’”  “Columbia professor rips university’s president over Israel Hamas war response”

But our freedom to speak is too important to our free society to be easily snuff out. Dozens of Columbia University and Bernard College faculty issued an open letter defending not only the right of its students to defend Palestinians but the substance of their letter as well.

The letter stated in part that “In our view, the student statement aims to recontextualize the events of October 7, 2023, pointing out that military operations and state violence did not begin that day, but rather it represented a military response by a people who had endured crushing and unrelenting state violence from an occupying power over many years…. It is worth noting that not all of us agree with every one of the claims made in the students’ statement, but we do agree that making such claims cannot and should not be considered anti-Semitic….

“We ask Columbia University’s leadership, our faculty colleagues, Columbia alumni, potential employers of Columbia students, and all who share a commitment to the notion of a just society to join us in condemning, in the strongest of terms, the vicious targeting of our students with doxing, public shaming, surveillance by members of our community, including other students, and reprisals from employers.” “Open letter from Columbia and Barnard faculties” Amen

We all need this discussion in order to hear and understand everyone’s point of view. Peace will not come to Israel and to the West Bank and Gaza Strip until the Jews and Palestinians living there reconcile their grievance’s and adhere to just treatment of all.

Defending Israel

“’Hamas is ISIS,’ declared Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu…. ‘Just as the forces of civilization united to defeat ISIS, the forces of civilization must support Israel in defeating Hamas,’ Netanyahu said…. Hamas, which Israeli Foreign Minister Eli Cohen said on Tuesday ‘must be erased off the face of the planet.’… Israeli officials have vowed a merciless campaign of retribution against ‘human animals.’” “Washington Post: Hamas ISIS Islamic State Israel terrorism analogy”

That requires some unpacking. For starters: “ISIS literally views Hamas as apostates” Washington Post. But more importantly, even if Israel wanted to treat Hamas like it would treat ISIS, it would not be legally or morally justified in what it is now doing to Gaza and its largely Palestinian residents. Israel is starving and bombing them to death (no food, water, power) and as of noon Oct 25 4,385 have been killed by Israeli bombs, 62% of which are women and children and probably none are Hamas officials.

Efforts to defeat ISIS around the world were focused on the members of ISIS and not the people of the country they were operating in.  “Israel-Hamas-war-Gaza-Palestine-ground invasion strategy”  “UN chief Antonio Guterres on Tuesday asserted that no party to an armed conflict is above international humanitarian law as he expressed deep alarm over the “relentless bombardment” of the Hamas-ruled Gaza Strip by Israeli forces and appealed to all to “pull back from the brink” before the violence escalates even further.” ‘No one above law UN chief on Gaza bombing”

On Oct 23, former President Obama issued a statement that included: “But even as we support Israel, we should also be clear that how Israel prosecutes this fight against Hamas matters. In particular, it matters — as President Biden has repeatedly emphasized — that Israel’s military strategy abides by international law, including those laws that seek to avoid, to every extent possible, the death or suffering of civilian populations….  Palestinians have also lived in disputed territories for generations; that many of them were not only displaced when Israel was formed but continue to be forcibly displaced by a settler movement that too often has received tacit or explicit support from the Israeli government; that Palestinian leaders who’ve been willing to make concessions for a two-state solution have too often had little to show for their efforts; and that it is possible for people of good will to champion Palestinian rights and oppose certain Israeli government policies in the West Bank and Gaza without being anti-semitic.” Barack Obama: My statement on Israel and Gaza”

In the following English language press conference on October 13, Hamas claims that its attack on Oct 7 was in reaction to 70 years of abusive Israeli occupation of Palestinian lands and was defensive and aimed only at military targets. Their attack was not undertaken in a vacuum, and as excessive as I think it was, it would be wise to understand their claims. Strangely today is the first I heard about this press conference: Hamas press conference

If Israel displaces Hamas as the government of Gaza, what are its plans for future governance of the area (assuming that there is anyone left to govern)? Post columnist David Ignatius discusses this issue. “Israel Gazans Hamas war rebuilding”  In the meantime we should demand that Israel end its slaughter of innocent Palestinians.

Preserving the Global Order

As the number of BRICS member countries grows, the international organizations through which countries cooperate are at risk of fragmenting.  To keep the IMF, World Bank, WTO, WHO, ITU and other international bodies together to perform their financial, standard setting, and coordination functions that have contributed so much to global prosperity, each member must believe that they are fairly represented in such bodies.

Unlike the UN’s one country one vote, members of the International Monetary Fund and World Bank, have votes (quotas) that reflect their economic importance. The fundamental criteria for the financial contribution and voting share of each member country in the IMF and WB are the economic size of its economy and its share of world trade and reserves.

When they were established after WWII in 1944, the total size of the IMF was 8.8 billion dollars of which $2.9 billion was pledged by the U.S. giving it a quota (and vote) of 33% of the total. Any major policy decisions or amendments to the IMF’s Article of Agreement require an 85% support. This gave, and continues to give, the U.S. a veto over any important measure it doesn’t like. At that time the U.K. quota of $1.3 billion was 15% of the total and that of France was $0.65 billion or 7.4% of the total.

The Republic of China was an original member of the IMF in 1944, whose seat was transferred to the Peoples Republic of China in 1980 with a quota of 1.2 billion SDR which was 3.1% of the total of SDR 39.0 billion. “What are SDRs?” This was promptly increased to 1.8 billion SDRs (4.6%). The quotas and voting strength of the IMF’s six largest members in 1980 and 2022 were:

                        1980               2022

U.S.           19.83%               16.08%

U.K.             6.94%               4.03%

Germany    5.13%               5.31%

China           4.62%              6.08%

France.        4.57%              4.03%

Japan.          3.96%              6.14%

Over the last 4 decades, China and many other lower income countries have grown significantly. U.S. GDP in 1980 was $9.7 trillion in 2022 dollars while China’s was $1.03 trillion in 2022 dollars.  But by 2022 the US economy had double while Chinas increased almost 14 times. The adjustments in member quotas failed miserably to reflect these changes. The US quota dropped from 19.8% to 16.5% while China’s increased from 4.62% to 6.08%

In 2022 GDPs of the top five were:

  1. United States: $20.89 trillion
  2. China: $14.72 trillion
  3. Japan: $5.06 trillion
  4. Germany: $3.85 trillion
  5. United Kingdom: $2.67 trillion
  6. India: $2.66 trillion

To quote from Wikipedia: “To further rebalance power in the IMF, China appealed for changes that would transfer voting power to developing economies. In 2010, the Chinese executive director of the Fund, Zhou Xiaochuan, addressed the board and asserted that giving more power to the emerging economies was critical for the group’s legitimacy, accountability and long-term health.”

In the IMF/WB annual meetings that just concluded in Morocco have called for an increase in IMF resources but distributed equiproportionately, i.e., with no change in members’ relative voting weight (quotas). This moves member quotas even further away from the basic formula for determining them. Why and what might be the consequence?

The U.S. has dominated the IMFs policies from its inception largely in furtherance of developing and preserving a liberal trading order that has benefited the world. But it is apparently unwilling to give up its veto power (a quota of more than 15%). Such dominance risks corruption over time: “Monopolies”   “The Dollar Again”

But if the governance of the IMF is not seen as fair by its members, they have an incentive to look elsewhere. China understandably wants the status and influence of its increased size. So, Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa (BRICS) have started to go their own way with China’s Belt and Road Initiative, Asia Infrastructure Investment Bank, and other China lead initiatives. More countries are joining the BRICS. The fragmenting of international norms and rules for cross countries relations threatens to harm global prosperity. As an early example, sovereign debt restructuring agreements are now being held up because of China’s reluctance to play ball with the term agreed by the other sovereign lenders.

U.S. and IMF—wake up. “Goodbye unipolar world and good riddance”

Golda

 The natural, instinctive reaction to abuse is revenge. Civilization requires taming many instincts useful for survival by hunters/gatherers, including the urge for revenge. Aggressive war is one of the worst and ugliest forms of revenge, but in “modern” society most of us are far removed from war’s realities when the war is “over there.”

Many movies do the best job possible in confronting us with the individual, personal tragedies of war for those of you who only experience it on TV news. I have no doubt that if more people understood the nature and consequences of war, they would advocate it far less often.

One of those movies you should watch is Golda. Golda Meir was the Prime Minister of Israel during the Yom Kippur War of 1973. It very well depicts the pain, confusion, and tragedy of war (in this case an attack on Israel by Egypt, which Israel obviously could not avoid). We watched it last night and cried yet again.

Joan Baez

“Joan Baez: I am a noise” is at the top of my list of movies to see. I fell in love with her music listening to her free Friday concerts on the steps of Sproul Hall at the U of California, Berkeley in 1964 during the Free Speech Movement protests. I became, and remain, a big fan of Joan Baez, Simon and Garfunkel, Peter, Paul and Mary and many other folk as well as Irish and Andean folk music singers.

As I am writing this I am listening, as I often do sitting here in my easy chair, to Kate Wolf, which will be following automatically by Joan, etc. Tears often form as I listen, and I don’t really understand why. I think my life has been amazingly wonderful and exciting, full of happy and sad events. Why would the music that I have always loved so much tear me up? They are neither sad nor happy tears as my mind glides over time to the past. They really are a mystery. Perhaps they are tears of gratitude for taking my mind off the world outside us today. Joan sang of love and peace.

Israel and the WBGS – Next Steps

October 9, 2023

The first step and priority of any nation being attacked (e.g., Ukraine by Russian or Israel by Hamas) is to defend itself as best it can. The next step, how ever,  can easily succumb to the urge to seek revenge, as called for by Netanyahu, who is “ implementing a ‘full siege’ of the densely populated Gaza Strip — ‘no electricity, no food, no fuel,’ said Defense Minister Yoav Gallant — as part of a campaign that is aimed at destroying Hamas’s military capabilities” Wash Post “Israel-Gaza war Hamas” But such retaliation would be another escalation up the ladder toward total destruction—or, if you prefer, deeper into the hole.

“Even a decisive Israeli military victory is unlikely to end the country’s increasingly perilous security challenges. It’s not even clear what “winning” means…. “If the war stopped today, or even after Gaza looks like another war zone, Hamas has effectively won,” said Dan Kurtzer, a former U.S. Ambassador to Israel. “New Yorker: Israel may decimate Hamas, but can it win this war”

The more emotionally and politically difficult second step would aim to lower hostilities in the more distant future. It would seek to understand and deal with the issues that led to Hama’s brutal attack. “Wash Post: The Israeli-Hamas war has two paths forward”

“Palestinian demands are both clear and precise: Freeing all prisoners; respecting the sanctity of Palestinian holy sites in Jerusalem, ending the siege on Gaza and more.” “The Gaza war is lost, but will Netanyahu concede?” Should Israel negotiate these demands or retaliate?

The goals of the Oslo Accord that I worked hard to help implement –the two state solution—have not been realized. Both Israel and the Palestine Authority created according to the Oslo Accord have failed to measure up to their required roles and the U.S. has failed to hold each to account.

To quote from my blog on Oct 7 “Hamas’s objectives in the operation are no secret: First, retaliate and punish Israel for its occupation, oppression, illegal settlement, and desecration of Palestinian religious symbols, especially Al-Aqsa Mosque in Jerusalem; second, take aim at Arab normalisation with Israel that embraces its apartheid regime in the region; and lastly, secure another prisoner exchange in order to get as many Palestinian political prisoners released from Israeli jails as possible.”  https://wcoats.blog/2023/10/07/palestine-israel-and-wbgs/

In 2006, when Hamas won the most seats in the new Palestinian legislature “then Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice mused, ‘Certainly, I’ve asked why nobody saw it coming, and I hope that we will take a hard look, because it does say something about perhaps not having had a good enough pulse on the Palestinian population.’ The words are haunting, once again, today.” “New Yorker: Israel may decimate Hamas, but can it win this war”

The U.S. winked when the election losing Fatah, headed by Mahmoud Abbas, ignored the election results and took over the Palestinian Authority. The U.S. closed its eyes all together when Israelis murdered Palestinian men, women and children and bulldozed their homes to make way for more Israeli settlements. What were we expecting?