In the greatest public address any American President has ever given, Donald Trump claimed to have stopped Iran from developing atomic bombs (in the greatest lie every told).
Here are the facts. Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the Supreme Leader of Iran at the time, supported the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) that provided international inspection of Iran’s enrichment of uranium used for its nuclear power plants to ensure that it did not enrich it to the level needed for atomic bombs. Khamenei repeatedly stated that the production, stockpiling, and use of nuclear weapons are forbidden under Islamic law. This religious position is formalized as a fatwa (a legal ruling under Sharia), which the Iranian government has cited for decades as proof of the peaceful nature of its nuclear program.
During his first term, President Trump withdrew the US from the JCPOA and international inspections stopped. A broad international consensus holds that the US/Israeli attacks on Iran this year will drive Iran to overcome its religious restraints on developing the bomb and proceed to do so out of its need to defend itself. Thus, rather than preventing Iran from developing atomic bombs Trump (and his friend Bibi) have probably forced Iran to do so. For good measure US/Israel killed Khamenei with an airstrike on February 28. Maybe Trump will find a way to blame NATO for all of this???
Author: Warren Coats
I specialize in advising central banks on monetary policy and the development of the capacity to formulate and implement monetary policy. I joined the International Monetary Fund in 1975 from which I retired in 2003 as Assistant Director of the Monetary and Financial Systems Department. While at the IMF I led or participated in missions to the central banks of over twenty countries (including Afghanistan, Bosnia, Croatia, Egypt, Iraq, Israel, Kazakhstan, Kenya, Kosovo, Kyrgystan, Moldova, Serbia, Turkey, West Bank and Gaza Strip, and Zimbabwe) and was seconded as a visiting economist to the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (1979-80), and to the World Bank's World Development Report team in 1989. After retirement from the IMF I was a member of the Board of the Cayman Islands Monetary Authority from 2003-10 and of the editorial board of the Cayman Financial Review from 2010-2017. Prior to joining the IMF I was Assistant Prof of Economics at UVa from 1970-75. I am currently a fellow of Johns Hopkins Krieger School of Arts and Sciences, Institute for Applied Economics, Global Health, and the Study of Business Enterprise. In March 2019 Central Banking Journal awarded me for my “Outstanding Contribution for Capacity Building.” My recent books are One Currency for Bosnia: Creating the Central Bank of Bosnia and Herzegovina; My Travels in the Former Soviet Union; My Travels to Afghanistan; My Travels to Jerusalem; and My Travels to Baghdad. I have a BA in Economics from the UC Berkeley and a PhD in Economics from the University of Chicago. My dissertation committee was chaired by Milton Friedman and included Robert J. Gordon. I live in National Landing Va 22202
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Dear Warren,
Generally speaking, I agree with the thrust of your blog. Like you, I am against this unnecessary, untimely war, which has and will ultimately hinder the U.S. economy. Another low point in the President’s tenure. There are, however, some serious inaccuracies (emotionally driven statements). I will try to recalibrate these and remove some of the emotion from what is otherwise a thoughtful blog.
It is a fact that the U.S. President has repeatedly stated that his policies toward Iran have prevented and constrained Iran’s path toward developing nuclear capabilities. He has not said that he has “stopped” Iran from developing atomic bombs. Whether his policies have actually achieved that remains unconfirmed.
Mr. Khamenei stated several times that nuclear weapons are forbidden under Islamic law. However, before taking this at face value, we must consider whether this ruling is binding or whether it could be reversed.
Regarding inspections, they did not stop immediately after the U.S. withdrew from the JCPOA in 2018. In fact, Iran gradually reduced its compliance, and inspections became more limited (arguably less effective).
I find the statement that U.S.–Israel attacks will push Iran to build an atomic bomb rather outlandish. This weakens the blog’s credibility. The ruling establishment may be radical, but it has not demonstrated irrationality. That said, the more pressure any group faces, the more unpredictable its behavior may become—I grant you that.
In sum, I broadly agree with the thrust of your blog sansd emotional common mistakes. That said, I was very disappointed with the President’s address last night. He appeared tired and did not offer new information to the American public. I still do not understand the logic behind the timing of this war. I remain highly concerned about pushing an already weak US economy toward recession. More Important, I also feel deeply for the American lives at risk, the casualties, and their families. I wish the President had set a stronger example of shared sacrifice, as has been the case in some European traditions.
Regards,
Sergio Pombo