FIRE: Foundation for Individual Rights and Expression

“Free Speech Makes Free People

“The Foundation for Individual Rights and Expression’s mission is to defend and sustain the individual rights of all Americans to free speech and free thought — the most essential qualities of liberty…. FIRE defends and promotes the value of free speech for all Americans in our courtrooms, on our campuses, and in our culture.”   “F.I.R.E.”

The above words headline FIRE’s website and purpose. Free speech is so fundamental and essential to the vibrancy and health of American society that I have blogged in its defense on many occasions and will not repeat those argues here: “Freedom of speech-final thoughts for a while at least”   “Do we really need free speech”  It should not surprise you that I was on the Free Speech Council at the U of Cal Berkeley in 1964  “Joan Baez”

Attacks have come from both sides of the political spectrum, but the current risks are from the MAGA right and the Jewish lobby. 

In commenting on the Palestinian-Israeli wars, criticism of Israel’s vicious attacks on Gaza, West Bank, Lebanon and now Syria have too often led to University repression of speech if it is critical of Israel and even firing of staff. “The alternative to war”   “Palestine”  Pro Palestinian demonstrators have too often been suppressed.

The US government has increasingly flexed its muscle to silence criticism as well. A Free Press headline claimed: “A Mom Asked for Public School Board Records. They Charged Her $33 Million.”  Free Press: “Mom asks for public school records”

But serious concerns are being raised by President elect Donald Trump’s actions to punish or silence opponents. Kash Patel, Trump’s nominee to lead the FBI, stated last year that:

 “’We’re going to come after the people in the media who lied about American citizens, who helped Joe Biden rig presidential elections,’ Patel said. The same applies for supposed ‘conspirators’ inside the federal government, he said.”  AP “FBI Trump Patel”

In an equally, if not more, disturbing attack on the press “Trump filed the suit in March, days after Stephanopoulos said multiple times in an interview with Rep. Nancy Mace (R., S.C.) on ABC’s Sunday morning news show “This Week” that Trump had been found civilly liable for raping writer E. Jean Carroll. A federal jury determined he was liable for sexual abuse, but not rape.”  Rather than correct its minor misstatement, Disney, the owner of ABC News, settled out of court and agree to pay $15 million to Trump’s future presidential foundation and museum, and $1 million in legal fees to Trump’s lawyer. WSJ: “Disney Trump lawsuit with ABC News” The dampening impact on press reporting is huge.

The following is not from the Onion:

 “The MAGA cult leader took time out of his very busy presidential transition schedule to sue a pollster and newspaper in Des Moines, Iowa, for a poll he didn’t like prior to the election. Seriously. Trump’s vindictiveness has very little to due with polling in Iowa, of course. These actions are designed to scare the mainstream media into obsequence when his wrecking ball of second term actually gets under way”  USA Today: “Trump sues Des Moines Register over election poll”

While this may look like a joke, its dampening impact on free speech is serious and we must fight it.

The first Amendment to the U.S. Constitution states that:

“Congress shall make no law respecting an establishment of religion, or prohibiting the free exercise thereof; or abridging the freedom of speech, or of the press; or the right of the people peaceably to assemble, and to petition the Government for a redress of grievances.”

America’s tradition of free speech extends far beyond these legal protections from government. It embodies a tradition of open (and hopefully civil) public debate and expression of our view. We must defend it.

Econ 101: Our standard of living

In 1900, US income (GDP) was $4,096 per capita in 2023 dollars, while in 2023 it was $81,695. The US poverty rate fell from 56% to 11.1% over the same period. How was such a dramatic increase in our widely shared standard of living possible? The answer (without explaining how it came about) is increased labor productivity. Each worker has been able to produce more and more and hence earned a higher income.

Putting this differently, more and more people were automated out of their old jobs allowing them to find new ones and produce new things increasing overall output/incomes. Such dynamism does carry the temporary cost of finding new jobs and developing new skills. At any point over the last century that cost could have been prevented by freezing productivity improvements, but that would also have ended the growth in our incomes. Thank heavens such crazies did not win out. But it seems they never stop trying.

The International Longshoremen’s Association (ILA), the union that represents some 47,000 dockworkers, is threatening to strike if the United States Maritime Alliance (USMX), which oversees port operations, goes forward with plans to automate more of these port activities.

“’There has been a lot of discussion having to do with ‘automation’ on United States docks,’ Trump wrote in his post Thursday. ‘I’ve studied automation, and know just about everything there is to know about it. The amount of money saved is nowhere near the distress, hurt, and harm it causes for American Workers, in this case, our Longshoremen. Foreign companies have made a fortune in the U.S. by giving them access to our markets.’

“’For the great privilege of accessing our markets, these foreign companies should hire our incredible American Workers, instead of laying them off, and sending those profits back to foreign countries,” Trump wrote.” “WP: Trump – port-strike-automation”

Whether out of ignorance or deliberate obfuscation, Trump again misstates who gains and who pays. When foreign ships are unloaded in American ports it is the American consumers who benefit from any cost savings at the ports.  Trump also claims (though he surely knows better) that China would pay for his high tariffs on imports from China.

A tariff, of course, is a tax the US levies at our borders on goods we import from abroad. It’s paid in the first instance by the American importers. Like any other tax, it is added to the price of selling these imports to the American public. It’s very purpose is to reduce domestic demand for such imports in order to encourage (more expensive and less efficient) domestic production of such goods. Please, let’s not stop technical progress and the higher income it enables.

“Data” – Flawed but see it anyway

Ito and I saw the play “Data” at Arena Stage last Tuesday. The Washington Post review was titled “This play is a flawed look at AI. You should see it anyway.”  “Data-Arena Stage review”  We agree. The production and acting were outstanding. But the story fell short in a number of ways.

Skipping all the personal mysteries that were inadequately explained, the play suggests that turning the screening of immigration applications (not asylum applications) over to a computer (AI) program would be bad. Whatever biases (criteria) are wanted for US immigration policy can be built into the screening program, of course, but if they are not the criteria America wants to apply, AI is a safer way of avoiding them than the judgement of individual immigration officers.

In requesting bids from programmers to develop the AI screening program, the play states that the government’s objective to sort out those applicants for residency (and ultimately citizenship) is to approve those who would be “positive and productive.”  If the criteria for finding such people can be identified for immigration officers (no easy task), they can be built into an AI program, which can be relied on to more faithfully and consistently apply them than any human officers. The boss in the play correctly noted that such a program could produce an answer in seconds that  took the US immigration service three years to achieve in his case coming from China.

Of course, AI is not perfect and can make mistakes just as humans can. But their accuracy is improving with training and use at a rapid rate. Tesla’s Full Self Driving cars have been linked to 956 accidents with 29 deaths. But this is already dramatically safer than the much higher death rates per million miles driven of car accidents by humans.

Training AI programs will draw on a much wider set of information than is now used for immigration applications. Anything on the Internet related to the applicant might be collected and evaluated by an AI program. How should such information be used? This opens new concerns that will need to be evaluated, but the promise of faster and better application processing from the use of AI promises much more benefits than risks compared to our current reliance on human immigration officers.

“Data” does a poor job of exploring these important issues, but it is worth watching anyway.

U.S. occupation of Iraq

The following blog is 100% true. I did meet with Erik Prince in his Tyson’s Corner office and the U.S. Army’s killing of an old Iraqi man in Baghdad and the related events are 100% true. Unfortunately, my confrontation of Prince with his security teams damaging behavior in Iraq only occurred in my dreams last night.

In the late 2000s (probably 07 or 08) I met with Erik Prince in his Blackwater headquarters at Tyson’s Corner Virginia to discuss a prospective project in Jordan. At the end of our meeting I confronting him with the bad reputation of his Blackwater team in Bagdad (sadly this was only in my dream but the events are 100% true).

Following the U.S. and British invasion of Iraq, Blackwater provided security in Bagdad to US Embassy staff and foreign contractors such as me. While reporting to the U.S. Treasury, I was paid by USAID and housed and protected as part of the BearingPoint team under the USAID contract. Because of Blackwater’s reputation for a high profile, roughshod approach to security (driving their armored cars wherever—including sidewalks and wrong way streets), BearingPoint had hired a British security firm.

Even when countries are “liberated” their citizens never like the invading army to hang around long. Iraq was no exception. And the U.S. has proved no better (to say the least) than other colonial powers at administering the lands they conquered. The following story from early 2004 of an illustrative incident in Bagdad was told to me by a US Embassy friend, Michael Cole, who was in the middle of it:

“On a residential street between the Green Zone and our destination in Kadhimiya – possibly Mansour, Karkh, or Hurriyah – I heard the young soldier in the gun turret above me yell extremely loudly at someone in the street. I often spent rides like this reading notes or emails I’d printed to prepare for meetings, glancing up frequently to become familiar with routes and landmarks in case I needed to return to the Green Zone alone. I saw the old man the soldier was yelling at as he walked directly into the road. The Humvee was going extremely fast, driving in formation with 2 or 3 others, swerving across the road in formation to prevent civilian vehicles from riding alongside us where they could block our route or gain a clear line of fire to assassinate me. The driver never could have stopped once the man walked into the road. Just as I saw him and realized why the soldier was yelling, I heard and felt each tire on the passenger side where I sat roll over him. I’ve never run over a deer, but I expect the sound is similar. The vehicle was too fast, loud, and heavy for me to hear a scream or bones break, but I heard a crowd behind us scream, and cars honk. I looked around for landmarks so I could file a report and return to the site someday to make amends. The man appeared to have left a small yellow house with a date palm beside a four-lane road.

“I remember the soldiers cussed loudly when we hit the man. Most had Southern accents and sunburned faces. They started the mornings clean except for their gloves, but ended every day covered in dust, with black outlines left by tinted blast goggles. We talked about the incident when we arrived in Kadhimiya and were safe in a walled parking lot. Most of the soldiers were as distressed as I was. We all knew the man was dead, and we believed it was too dangerous to stop and try to help.

“One of the soldiers, possibly a young lieutenant who was my liaison with the security details, explained that the local Forward Operating Base had a process to compensate families of civilians killed by Coalition Forces. He explained that Iraqi tradition permitted compensation in lieu of prosecution even among local persons, and that this was an accepted form of justice. My later study of Arab tribal culture led me to believe Baghdadis could follow the same practice. I submitted my own brief statement to a local colonel or lieutenant colonel, who knew the case and assured me the family was well-compensated for the man’s death. I remember doubting anyone could be satisfied by this, but I was pleased I was not the only person who had submitted a statement. The soldiers did so before me. I tried to estimate what the man’s life could be worth between a Shiite Baghdadi family and the US military, but the normal actuarial items never equaled what I imagined anyone could call justice. 

“I asked Iraqi colleagues what to do. They shared my grief. Some shared my anger. Others were dismissive – possibly because I described the man as poor. Most advised me not to go back because there was nothing I could do to help. One lady said I could help in a small way by visiting the family, and that was the advice I decided to accept. 

“My interpreter thought it was a terrible, dangerous idea to visit the old man’s family. He said they would kill me. However, he drove me to the site I described to him. He parked a block away, and I walked to the yellow house. One of the man’s relatives spoke English and translated for me. They knew why I was there, and they invited me to sit at a table in their front yard where they drank tea and watched the traffic pass. I told them I did not drive the humvee, but I was a passenger, and that I saw their grandfather, and that I was sorry. One man yelled at me in Arabic about his anger about the conditions in the city during the occupation, of which his relative’s death was just one event among many injustices. I listened, and I agreed. I asked for the man’s name, and they told me. Maybe I wrote it in a notebook that’s now in a box somewhere. I apologized again and held the hands of two men for a moment. The lady who translated told me the man was old, and his death was quick, and it was good of me to come. She said “the officer” had already visited, and her gesture suggested everything was resolved. I was glad they didn’t kill me, but I didn’t believe everything was resolved to anyone’s satisfaction. However, I thanked them for talking to me, and I walked back to my interpreter’s car. I walked up a block and he followed me until we were out of the family’s eyesight from their yard.

“That was that. It was another week in Baghdad, and I didn’t think much of it until I returned home that summer. Sometimes I remember that day when I see a thin, old Arab man, or a man in a grey dishdash, or a deer eyeing the road, or a sandbag beside the road, or plaid cotton with yellow in it, or olive-colored hands, or the shade of a palm over a blacktop, or smell hot tar or dust caked in sweat, which is to say, I think of it often and at unexpected moments. I’m no longer consumed by rage and sadness like I was in 2005, the year following my return home, which I barely remember. Now I remember it as an example of what happens in war, which should be avoided at almost all costs, and with an exhalation of sadness few who I’ve ever met might understand. We all have instances and threads of sadness woven through our memories and consciousnesses, and this is one of mine.”

You can read more of my own experiences there in “Iraq-An American Tragedy-My Travels to Baghdad”

The Bitcoin Act

“With the introduction of the BITCOIN Act this summer, Senator Cynthia Lummis (R-Wyo.) called for the creation of a strategic Bitcoin reserve with the goal of reducing the government’s near-$36 trillion national debt. But can this kind of reserve actually solve our debt crisis?”  FREOPP: “Can a bitcoin reserve save the US?”

Wow. This is one of the dumbest ideas I have seen in a long time.

For starters, sovereign reserve funds consist of investments of foreign currencies earn from a country’s exports (usually oil) that it did not chose to spend on imports, i.e. the result of a trade surplus. The U.S. has a trade deficient (we buy more from abroad than we sell) not a surplus and thus have no extra foreign currency to invest. The US would need to borrow the money to invest in bitcoin when the US government is all ready $36 trillion in debt. But if it were a relatively sure way of earning more than the cost of borrowing it, it could help reduce the national debt.

Is bitcoin such an investment? As I write this, bitcoin is selling at $96,479, a 146% increase from one year ago. Not bad to say the least. If instead the bitcoin fund had purchased bitcoin in 2013 (at about $450) and sold it at the end of 2016 ($434) it would have earned a bit less than nothing. But if it purchased it at the beginning of 2018 at $13,657 it would have lost its shirt by the end of the year at $3,709. In short bitcoin prices have been all over the map. They are not redeemable for anything, cannot be used to pay for anything with rare exceptions, and are thus a purely speculative form of gambling. WC: “Bitcoin”   WC: “Bitcoin2”

Creating a bitcoin reserve would be beyond stupid.

But in the currency area there is competition for destructive stupidity.  The US dollar is by far the most used currency for international transactions for good economic reasons. The US recently has been making the dollar less attractive by freezing Russian and Afghan dollar accounts: WC: “The dollar again” But rather than focusing on measures that would preserve or restore the dollar’s attractiveness (Make the Dollar Great Again), president elect Trump has threatened any country that does not use it with 100% tariffs. Such bullying is enough to embarrass even the worst bullies. WP: “Trudeau Trump tariffs”