I am a monetary, not a foreign policy, expert. But after spending good bits of the last two decades in Bosnia, Afghanistan, Iraq, Kosovo, South Sudan and Israel/WBGS I have some questions:
- Why did we expand NATO after the collapse of the Soviet Union?
- Why didn’t we discuss Putin’s Dec 2021demands to avoid Russia invading Ukraine? https://wcoats.blog/2022/02/26/ukraine-russia-nato/
- When Russia invaded Ukraine on Feb 24, 2022, why didn’t we give Ukraine all the military equipment they wanted?
- When Russia and Ukraine were ready to sign a peace agreement negotiated in Turkey in March 2022, why did UK PM Boris Johnson tell Ukraine President Zelenskyy not to sign?
- Why do Americans, and especially Congressmen, tolerate President Trump’s threats to invade Panama, Greenland, Mexico and expel all Palestinians from their homes in Gaza and break so many American laws?
Author: Warren Coats
I specialize in advising central banks on monetary policy and the development of the capacity to formulate and implement monetary policy. I joined the International Monetary Fund in 1975 from which I retired in 2003 as Assistant Director of the Monetary and Financial Systems Department. While at the IMF I led or participated in missions to the central banks of over twenty countries (including Afghanistan, Bosnia, Croatia, Egypt, Iraq, Israel, Kazakhstan, Kenya, Kosovo, Kyrgystan, Moldova, Serbia, Turkey, West Bank and Gaza Strip, and Zimbabwe) and was seconded as a visiting economist to the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (1979-80), and to the World Bank's World Development Report team in 1989. After retirement from the IMF I was a member of the Board of the Cayman Islands Monetary Authority from 2003-10 and of the editorial board of the Cayman Financial Review from 2010-2017. Prior to joining the IMF I was Assistant Prof of Economics at UVa from 1970-75. I am currently a fellow of Johns Hopkins Krieger School of Arts and Sciences, Institute for Applied Economics, Global Health, and the Study of Business Enterprise. In March 2019 Central Banking Journal awarded me for my “Outstanding Contribution for Capacity Building.” My recent books are One Currency for Bosnia: Creating the Central Bank of Bosnia and Herzegovina; My Travels in the Former Soviet Union; My Travels to Afghanistan; My Travels to Jerusalem; and My Travels to Baghdad. I have a BA in Economics from the UC Berkeley and a PhD in Economics from the University of Chicago. My dissertation committee was chaired by Milton Friedman and included Robert J. Gordon. I live in National Landing Va 22202
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Warren, Mearsheimer kept saying that US had told Ukraine not to sign back in March 2022. You appear to attribute a similar action to BoJo and UK. I doubt either one. FYI, a couple of links below, the first being the go-to piece in Foreign Affairs, June 2024. As I recall from reading it last summer, the negotiations fell apart because Zelensky could not get a security guarantee from the US. On your question #1, any NATO expansion eastward certainly went against the spirit of the Reagan and Bush41 negotiations with Gorbachev. Jack Matlock, US Amb to USSR, 1987-1991, attributes damage to Bill Clinton, who (Matlock speculates — see Superpower Illusions, 2010) promised NATO membership to Poland et al to get white ethnic votes in 1996 election. Consider that Bush41 went to the UN before going into Iraq in 1991, and got then-USSR on board … but Clinton did not go the the UN before bombing Serbia in, I think, 1999. Combination of NATO expansion and Serbia war left Russians very frosted. Clinton does not come out well. (Fwiw, I am a Democrat.) cheers! … C
The Talks That Could Have Ended the War in Ukraine
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| | | | The Talks That Could Have Ended the War in Ukraine
A hidden history of diplomacy that came up short—but holds lessons for future negotiations. |
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Ukraine-Russia Peace Is as Elusive as Ever. But in 2022 They Were Talking.
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Thanks. Helpful
Warren,
On 1. I think it is the wrong perspective to talk of NATO expanding eastwards. The main driving force was the countries themselves seeking protection from a Russia which had not given up its imperialist philosophy. Membership in the Western security arrangements was seen (I am thinking particularly of Poland) as part of the process of joining other European structures, principally the EU. And then there is the question of what the alternative security arrangements might have looked like with a large number of newly awakened countries, some with claims on their neighbours, independently pursuing defence or military policies. That also would have been a recipe for instability.
On 2, I would have to go back to recall exactly what Putin was saying in December 2021. The argument that the Ukrainian government was an illegitimate neo-Nazi junta has to be seen in the context of the meaning of “nazi” in Russian official parlance. For the Russians. the sin of the Nazis was that they attacked Russia/USSR. Thus Nazi and Russophobic are almost synonyms to them. And the irony is that until the Russians invaded Crimea and the Donbass in 2014, Ukraine was a country where Russian culture thrived. I don’t believe that NATO can be seen as an aggressive alliance, but as a defensive one. The Russians have made no effort to increase their defenses on the new long border with NATO that has appeared in Finland, so I think they know it too. Putin’s explicit beef with Ukraine is that Ukrainian nationalism is anti-Russian, and the country should be part of the Russian empire, and not strengthen its political economic and cultural links with the rest of Europe.
On 3, lack of will and a huge mistake of Biden. Given the difficulties other countries have had in reconciling themselves to the end of empire, the Russia needs to go through a period of introspection and only a resounding military defeat will do that. I hope it is not too last.
On 4, I don’t think your framing of a treaty ready to be signed reflects the reality. And if it had been in Ukraine’s interest, I doubt if Boris Johnson would have been able to dissuade them from signing it.
On 5, you tell me.
Mark
Thanks. Helpful