Econ 101 – Price gouging

The good news is that the Presidential campaign has moved on to the presentation of policy positions—at least on Kamila Harris’s part–Trump’s response at a Pennsylvania campaign stop over the weekend was thatshe’s gone “full communist.”

The bad news is that in addition to continuing some of Trump’s bad economic policies (tariffs, buy American protectionism, etc.) some of Harris’s economic policies are bad. Here I will take a closer look at her promise to ban “price gouging” by grocery stores.

In March of 2020 US. Broad Money (M2) growth jumped from its usual 5 to 6% per annum growth to over 25% a year later. As a result, U.S. Inflation (CPI) began to increase rapidly above its 2% target at the beginning of 2021. The Federal Reserve did not begin to tighten monetary policy until a year later when inflation had already reached 8% per annum. In addition, federal government deficit spending exploded over the same period. To fight this inflation the Fed’s policy interest rate was increased from almost zero from March 2022 to 5.3% by mid 2023 where it remains, thus ending M2 growth.

Since its disastrous late start in monetary tightening, the Fed’s management of the return of inflation to its 2% target has been as good as I could hope. Inflation has fallen below 3% without (yet) causing an economic slowdown. My guess is that the Fed is slightly behind the curve and should have started reducing it policy rate earlier this month.

So what is Harris’s ban on price gouging all about? “Perhaps Harris’s most surprising policy announcement was her plan to ban “price gouging” in grocery and food prices. While details were sparse, the measure would include authorizing the Federal Trade Commission to impose large fines on grocery stores that impose “excessive” price hikes on customers, her campaign said. Grocery prices remain a top concern for voters: Even though the rate of increase leveled off this year, grocery prices have jumped 26 percent since 2019, according to Elizabeth Pancotti, director of special initiatives at the Roosevelt Institute.” https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2024/08/16/kamala-harris-2024-policy-child-tax-credit/

In an excellent editorial last Friday (I urge you to read it) the Washington Post asked: “‘Price gouging’ is not causing inflation. So why is the vice president promising to stamp it out?”   https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2024/08/16/harris-economy-plan-gimmicks/

Stores only offer goods for sale when they can be sold for more than their cost to the story by enough to pay for their own employees, cost of their store and its maintenance and “normal” profit (return on the investment made by the store’s owners). The erratic economic events of the last few years create disruptions in these normal relationships that can produce temporary losses and/or usually large profits.

The supply and demand for a good can be matched by its price or by some other form of rationing. If a pandemic suddenly spikes the demand for facemasks, it will take a while for manufacturers to increase the supply. Until that happens demand will exceed supply.  Dr. Fauci and the government can ban sales to us common people in order to reserve the existing supply for doctors and nurses, or the market will increase the price such that only those with the most pressing need (or desire) will pay the higher price of the available supply. Rationing by prices has two big advantages. The first is that each individual (rather than government bureaucrats) determines whether their need is strong enough to pay the higher price. This makes it MUCH more likely that face masks will go to those with the highest need. Second it maximizes the market incentive to increase production and supply faster.

It the supply (relative to demand) shortage is not rationed by price, some other rationing mechanism and criteria must take its place. One is first come first served until the shelves are empty. During the wage and price freeze imposed by President Richard Nixon starting on Aug 15, 1971, gasoline was rationed by long lines of cars waiting for their turn at gas stations. It is not surprising that freely determined market prices have served us so well.

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Author: Warren Coats

I specialize in advising central banks on monetary policy and the development of the capacity to formulate and implement monetary policy.  I joined the International Monetary Fund in 1975 from which I retired in 2003 as Assistant Director of the Monetary and Financial Systems Department. While at the IMF I led or participated in missions to the central banks of over twenty countries (including Afghanistan, Bosnia, Croatia, Egypt, Iraq, Israel, Kazakhstan, Kenya, Kosovo, Kyrgystan, Moldova, Serbia, Turkey, West Bank and Gaza Strip, and Zimbabwe) and was seconded as a visiting economist to the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (1979-80), and to the World Bank's World Development Report team in 1989.  After retirement from the IMF I was a member of the Board of the Cayman Islands Monetary Authority from 2003-10 and of the editorial board of the Cayman Financial Review from 2010-2017.  Prior to joining the IMF I was Assistant Prof of Economics at UVa from 1970-75.  I am currently a fellow of Johns Hopkins Krieger School of Arts and Sciences, Institute for Applied Economics, Global Health, and the Study of Business Enterprise.  In March 2019 Central Banking Journal awarded me for my “Outstanding Contribution for Capacity Building.”  My recent books are One Currency for Bosnia: Creating the Central Bank of Bosnia and Herzegovina; My Travels in the Former Soviet Union; My Travels to Afghanistan; My Travels to Jerusalem; and My Travels to Baghdad. I have a BA in Economics from the UC Berkeley and a PhD in Economics from the University of Chicago. My dissertation committee was chaired by Milton Friedman and included Robert J. Gordon. I live in National Landing Va 22202

2 thoughts on “Econ 101 – Price gouging”

  1. Hi Warren,

    You are right about the economics of price gouging, of course.  I did read somewhere that 37 states have legislation allowing legal action against price gouging, so perhaps what Kamala has in mind would have less impact than implicit in our first impressions.  (I don’t think the US has ever had a president who knew anything about monetary policy.  Draghis are rare.)  

    My view is that Kamala has brought a striking change in public mood, perhaps enough to break the almost decade-long Trump curse…  I learned a few minutes ago of NYT reporting that a Trump-redux wants to use the military against US citizens, asserting the Insurrection Act (or otherwise) … in plans considered too incendiary to include even in Project 2025.  T has elsewhere spoken of military tribunals to convict and jail his political opponents — Clinton, Pelosi, Schiff, Cheney etc etc.  Milley, to take one case, has said on TV that he hired security to protect himself and family against potential Trump-incited attempts to have him or them killed…  In context, a bit of chatter about grocery store price gouging — well.

    On a different topic, I attach a June 10 WSJ article on Hamas’ intentions in Israel.  Sinwar deliberately provoked bloody Israeli responses, to include massive Gazan casualties, which he anticipated would blacken Israel’s reputation and destroy its legitimacy.  Netanyahu was un-strategic enough to oblige.  Link below is for a June 2024 For Aff piece by Robert Pape, “Hamas is Winning…”  Seems obvious to me that US support (military) should have been conditioned on a change in Israel government and in Israeli strategy.

    cheers!  … Clark

    Hamas Is Winning

    Hamas Is Winning

    Why Israel’s failing strategy makes its enemy stronger.

  2. Kamala’s father, Stanford economist Don Harris, is likely in favor of price controls to countervail against monopoly profits. But groceries are not a promising place to look for monopoly. Margins are said to be in the neighborhood of 1.4% (in contrast to say Nvidia’s 53%).

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