Russia

Russia has become a pain in the ass. Why and what should we do about it? First we must realize and accept that Russia will always be here. Just as Nazi Germany’s Holocaust did not eliminate Jews and Israel’s effort to eliminate Palestinians (sufficiently to have a democratic Jewish Israel from the River to the Sea as stated in Zionist documents) will not succeed, it is not possible, nor would the world accept the morality of eliminating Russia.

So the goal must be to carrot and stick Russia into a neighbor we can live with—even productively and happily live with.  Our approach to Ukraine provides many lessons for what not to do. With the collapse of the USSR, Russia and the other former Soviet Republics passionately wanted to become part of Western “normal” world. It was great fun working with them toward that goal in the early 1990s.

Russia’s great cultural offerings were more open to us. Russia was added to the G7, which became the G8. Russians are a proud people, who had just been humiliated, and wanted respect. But our embraces were more stumbling than they should have been. After reassuring Russia that NATO would not expand one inch East in exchange for the reunification of Germany as a NATO. We lied. NATOs membership doubled from 16 to 32.

Russia swallowed hard and offered conditions for Ukrainian neutrality that were larging acceptable to Ukraine and in any event negotiable. But we didn’t support/encourage Ukraine to negotiate so Russia invaded it. Even two months later when Russia and Ukraine had virtually agreed on the terms for ending the war, we discouraged it. Two and a half years later 100,000 have been confirmed dead. About 60% of the total were Russian. Twice that many are estimated to have died. And damage to Ukrainian cities and country side will take trillions of dollars to repair. https://wcoats.blog/2022/05/15/ukraines-and-russias-war%ef%bf%bc/

A May 24 report from Reuters, stated that Putin himself “is ready to halt the war in Ukraine with a negotiated ceasefire that recognizes the current battlefield lines.” We seem to prefer that “they” continue fighting to the last Ukrainian. After all we have been able to test our military equipment in the field without the loss of American lives. But we must remember the lessons of the Holocaust and Gaza. We can’t wipe Russia off the map. They will be here five, ten, twenty years from now. What do we want our relationship with Russia to be then? What carrots and sticks will get us there?

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Author: Warren Coats

I specialize in advising central banks on monetary policy and the development of the capacity to formulate and implement monetary policy.  I joined the International Monetary Fund in 1975 from which I retired in 2003 as Assistant Director of the Monetary and Financial Systems Department. While at the IMF I led or participated in missions to the central banks of over twenty countries (including Afghanistan, Bosnia, Croatia, Egypt, Iraq, Israel, Kazakhstan, Kenya, Kosovo, Kyrgystan, Moldova, Serbia, Turkey, West Bank and Gaza Strip, and Zimbabwe) and was seconded as a visiting economist to the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (1979-80), and to the World Bank's World Development Report team in 1989.  After retirement from the IMF I was a member of the Board of the Cayman Islands Monetary Authority from 2003-10 and of the editorial board of the Cayman Financial Review from 2010-2017.  Prior to joining the IMF I was Assistant Prof of Economics at UVa from 1970-75.  I am currently a fellow of Johns Hopkins Krieger School of Arts and Sciences, Institute for Applied Economics, Global Health, and the Study of Business Enterprise.  In March 2019 Central Banking Journal awarded me for my “Outstanding Contribution for Capacity Building.”  My recent books are One Currency for Bosnia: Creating the Central Bank of Bosnia and Herzegovina; My Travels in the Former Soviet Union; My Travels to Afghanistan; My Travels to Jerusalem; and My Travels to Baghdad. I have a BA in Economics from the UC Berkeley and a PhD in Economics from the University of Chicago. My dissertation committee was chaired by Milton Friedman and included Robert J. Gordon. I live in National Landing Va 22202

3 thoughts on “Russia”

  1. I don’t know if you’re misinformed or putin is paying you. But you are quoting the Kremlin party line so well that putin is probably buying you a present right now. A friend sent me a link to your blog. Here is my response to her.

    I’ve never heard of this Warren guy, but I can tell from what he’s written that he is a russian mouthpiece.

    1) He refers to Ukraine as “the Ukraine.” At this point in time, the only people still doing that are completely uninformed (in which case, he should not be blogging about Ukrainian politics) or are getting their information from russia-influenced sources.

    2) His premise of “russia will always be here” is a false premise. At one time, people probably said “Yugoslavia will always be here” (it’s not) or “the British Empire will always be here” (it’s not) or “the Ottoman Empire will always be here” (it’s not). There is nothing inherently sacred about russia existing.

    3) He states that NATO promised not to expand. This did not happen. (At most, there might have been casual conversation that NATO might not expand – it was certainly never a promise.) This is a common russian talking point – one of the most common.

    4) russia “offered conditions for Ukrainian neutrality” and since Ukraine didn’t negotiate, russia had to invade. My response to this is a string of 4-letter words that would shock you if I wrote them all. This is another common russian talking point. Prior to russia’s initial invasion of Ukraine in 2014, Ukrainians had minimal interest in being in NATO. They really wanted into the EU, but were less than lukewarm about joining NATO. After the 2014 invasion, interest in joining NATO increased and when the full scale invasion happened in 2022, interest skyrocketed. Ukraine was zero threat to russia – they just wanted to live their lives. They didn’t get interested in being in NATO until it was clear that they were being threatened by russia. russia had no business “offering conditions for Ukrainian neutrality” because it is not up to russia to decide what alliances that Ukraine, a sovereign country, makes. I get so angry when they try to use this along with their pathetic “and so we had to invade.”

    5) He references a report from Reuters that putin is ready to negotiate. First. Reuters has an affiliation with Tass, which is the russia propaganda media. Second, any time that putin wants to stop the war, all he has to do is to tell russians to stop firing – voila! War over. Third, putin hasn’t kept a single agreement made with Ukraine (see Budapest Memorandum and Minsk agreements), so there is no reason to believe that any agreement that was made would actually be honored by putin. Fourth, when the Minsk agreements did temporarily stop the previous invasion, putin used the time from 2015 (I think that was the first Minsk agreement, but I’d need to look it up) to 2022 to build up his military forces and invade in more strength. Any “peace” agreed to without an actual victory just means that russia will build up their military strength and invade again in a few years.

    I don’t know if this guy is intentionally (i.e., being paid) to spout russian crap or is just so clueless that he thinks this is a good analysis. Either way. It makes my blood boil.

    1. You should read my blog more carefully, though I should have said “Russians” rather than “Russia” as I did for “Jews” rather than “Israel” (which sadly is committing suicide).

  2. “Russians rather than Russia”… Well, ok… Few if any want to wipe the Russian people off the map. But plenty want to wipe away Putin and those invading Ukraine… A difference that also distinguishes Ukraine from Nazis, who -did- want to wipe out Jews as a people, and Hamas and its supporters and enablers, civilian or otherwise, who -do- want to wipe Jews (and Israel) off the map. And Israel has no desire to see arabs “wiped out”… only the ones that irrationally cling to the middle ages at the expense of the safety of Israel (including the Gaza and the West Bank regions) and the rest of civilization.

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