What will be the impact of AI on American jobs? That is an important and relevant question, if it refers to the change in the types of jobs likely to result. It misunderstands the nature of technical progress—increased worker productivity—if it refers to lost jobs increasing unemployment.
I am reminded of the wonderful movie Hidden Figures, about the “African-American women whose mathematical prowess helped launch the United States into the space age” Hidden Figures True History: Behind the Real Langley Lab | Time (this reference was found by my ChatAI browser in about 10 seconds when I couldn’t remember the name of the movie ). In the movie—a true life story—these women filled a large room with desks and their adding machines crunching number. I assume that one person with a desk top computer can now perform more calculations than that earlier room full of women. Have we lost jobs as a result (job openings currently exceed the number of potential workers looking for jobs)?
Some jobs were eliminated as the result of technical progress (look what tractors did to farming) freeing up those workers to produce other things. Overall worker productivity has skyrocketed, raising most everyone’s standard of living not only in the US but around the world. AI has the potential to do more of the same.
But such progress is disruptive. It is easy enough for young, new entrants to the labor force to train for the new jobs needed, but more difficult for older workers to retrain for the new jobs (potentially working with new machines). Public policy needs to promote such flexibility and adjustment as productivity continues to grow. “Replacing Social Security with a universal basic income” We have also chosen to take some of our increased productivity and thus incomes in the form of increased leisure (shorter work weeks). AI is one of the latest in the long line of wonderful productivity tools that has made us all richer than the kings of earlier days. Bring it on.
Warren's space 